Orioles notably absent in star international free agent predictions

The more you dig into Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, the more there is to like. He's been an elite starter with NPB's Chiba Lotte Marines, pitching to a 2.10 ERA in just under 400 professional innings in Japan. His strikeouts were down a touch in 2024 but he's still posted three straight years with a double-digit K/9 and the eye test tells us he's as good as any other international starter that we've seen in recent memory. All that, and he's still just 23 years old.

While we've speculated a bit about the potential of the Orioles landing Sasaki, recent projections from MLB.com aren't as positive. The O's weren't listed as a potential landing spot for Sasaki in their latest projections, and recent rumors suggest that the righty is nearing the decision point for selecting a team to sign with. Sasaki's signing window as an international free agent ends on January 23.

Sasaki has reportedly met with 20 MLB teams, six of them confirmed. The Orioles aren't among the group of six, though that doesn't inherently rule them out. The O's are among the teams with the second highest IFA bonus pool allotment, just shy of $7 million. So they'd at least be able to offer him a competitive signing bonus, in addition to offering him the chance to play for a contender with a similarly young core.

Japanese star Roki Sasaki reportedly narrowing down his options in free agency

At this point, it's not clear that Sasaki is interested in signing with one of the teams with the most money to spend. He's going to get a brutally cheap contract, especially compared to Yoshinobu Yamamoto who came over as a true free agent and signed with the Dodgers for $325 million. With that being the case, Sasaki naturally will look to prioritize other factors during his free agency.

It's been reported that Sasaki has asked teams to not include other star players in their pitches to him. Whether that means Sasaki is looking to be the highest-profile starter on a given team is unclear. He could just be looking to limit any outside influence and take his time evaluating each team's current situation.

It's fair to assume that Sasaki wants to play for a contender. It would be stunning if he chose a team like the Athletics, for instance. But outside of the assumption that Sasaki wants to win, and play for a team that has a reputable pitching development staff, his camp has kept things relatively quiet for the past several months.

As we get through the month of January, the Sasaki sweepstakes will only continue to get more heated. It's long been assumed that the Dodgers, Padres, and Mariners have the inherent advantage of playing on the west coast, though he might have to fight for playing time in LA. The Mets would be another interesting landing spot, as they'd be as likely as anyone to eventually offer him a substantial contract extension down the line.

If Sasaki isn't coming to Baltimore, the least he could do is stay out of the AL East. Boston has been rumored as a possible destination, which would be a nightmare scenario for the Orioles. He could theoretically wind up with the Yankees too, though both the Jays and Rays seem like long shots.