Orioles missed golden opportunity after Tatsuya Imai’s contract details revealed

For the most part, the Baltimore Orioles have kept their promises when it comes to this offseason. The front office said that they would address the rotation, then they went out and traded for Shane Baz. Team officials were telling anyone who would listen that they planned to spend this offseason, then they signed Pete Alonso at the Winter Meetings. But Baltimore's search for a frontline starter is still ongoing, which is why the O's perceived lack of interest in Tatsuya Imai is so perplexing.

Like all teams, the Orioles definitely touched base with Imai. For a team with an obvious need, and one that doesn't want to shell out $30 million per year, Imai's free agency seemed like an interesting opportunity. Now that we know the contract details from the Astros' deal with Imai, it appears as though Baltimore should have been more involved in his market.

The Orioles could've easily matched the deal Tatsuya Imai received from the Astros

If the Astros had shelled out $25 million per year over five-plus seasons, the Orioles' decision to pass on Imai would've made sense. Despite recent success stories like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signing players from Japan is risky. Long-term commitments are tough to make unless you just don't care about money (looking at you, Dodgers). Even without having to lose a draft pick to sign him, that would have still been a hefty gamble.

However, that isn't what was required. Imai ended up taking a three-year deal with opt-outs after each of the first two years and the deal includes incentives based on innings pitched. There are reports that Imai turned down more guaranteed money, but stretched out over a longer period at a lower AAV (exactly what those offers were and from whom has not been revealed just yet). In the end, it only required a $21 million AAV over, at maximum, three years and that's only if Imai plays well enough to hit an innings thresholds.

Where were the Orioles in these talks? Were they one of the teams that opted to offer a longer-term, lower AAV deal? Perhaps, but reality is probably more cynical than that. There are GMs that don't like handing opt-outs to players — the Atlanta Braves are the same way — and instead prefer team options. However, that Baltimore wasn't willing to at least try such an arrangement with Imai, knowing that the AAV wasn't too crazy and the deal was relatively short, is wild.

Now, the Orioles will probably have to turn to a starter who both declined a qualifying offer, which means they would lose a pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, and who will also require a long-term deal on a high AAV. That profile in itself carries a big risk, as the Nationals found out with Patrick Corbin. Hopefully, we get some clarity soon, because right now it feels like Baltimore missed a big chance in Imai.