Orioles GM Mike Elias sets expectation for top prospect trades this winter

When it comes to trading top tier prospects, Mike Elias and the Orioles have been notoriously stingy. To this point, they've waited out guys like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser and in general it's worked out in the Orioles favor.

At the trade deadline this past summer, there were all kinds of rumors swirling around that the O's could potentially move one of Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo in the right deal but nothing ever came of it. Holliday has been such a highly rated prospect that it's tough to even come up with the type of deal that makes sense on paper, but the Orioles had some glaring roster needs this summer and they refused to pull the trigger on a deal to move one of their top guys.

Heading into 2025, it appears that Elias' mindset hasn't changed much. After a conversation with MASN reporter Roch Kubatko, all signs point toward the Orioles hanging onto their top tier guys, like Holliday, Mayo, star catching prospect Samuel Basallo, and the incredibly intriguing Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Orioles GM Mike Elias reluctant to trade top prospects

In regard to the guys at the top of the Orioles' system, Elias said "It’s just hard to trade those guys almost in any capacity". He mentioned how important it is for a team like Baltimore to have players drafted and developed into major league contributors. New owner David Rubenstein has plenty of cash but it's impossible to solve an entire roster's worth of issues with money in the free agent market.

So yes, it's important for a team like Baltimore to have cheap wins on the roster. That's true for every team in the league, and especially one that isn't spending upwards of $250 million per year on player payroll. But at some point, it has to be advisable for a team to leverage prospect depth to upgrade the major league roster.

Not every prospect pans out. Neither Holliday nor Mayo had particularly encouraging years in 2024, and at this point the Orioles are essentially locked into hanging onto them or risk selling low. And sometimes even the ones that do pan out, like Joey Ortiz who's now in Milwaukee, bring back such positive returns that it makes sense to have moved them even in hindsight.

This isn't to say the Orioles should be looking to trade someone like Mayo or Basallo this winter. Those guys in particular are basically ready to contribute at the major league level in 2025 and will hopefully be part of the future in Baltimore for a long time to come.

But eventually Elias is going to need to move outside his comfort zone and take a risk. Whether that means dealing from his top prospect group to acquire talent, or outbid someone in free agency to get a player that they particularly like, moves like that have to be made if the Orioles want to win in October.