Orioles fans already know how the latest Cubs' minor-league signing will age

With less than a month before spring training, now is about the time when teams start looking for low-risk gambles on the free-agent market. The Baltimore Orioles remain attached to Framber Valdez this offseason, but they were just reminded of an offseason gamble they made last offseason that didn't age well.

Almost a year to the date that the Orioles made the same move, the Chicago Cubs are signing former first-round pick Dylan Carlson to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training.

While the Orioles signed Carlson last year with the expectation of him being on their 26-man roster, he's merely a guy competing for a roster spot in the Cubs' camp. He'll be competing with others--Chas McCormick and Kevin Alcantara--for a spot on Chicago's bench.

After a stop with the Orioles, Dylan Carlson's change-of-scenery tour continues with the Cubs

A former top prospect with the St. Louis Cardinals, Carlson was the one player St. Louis refused to trade as part of a package for Juan Soto when he was with the Washington Nationals. Hindsight hasn't been kind to the Cardinals' stance.

The Cardinals traded Carlson to the Tampa Bay Rays during the 2024 season, and he signed with the Orioles last January. As was the case during his time in St. Louis and Tampa Bay, Carlson's lone season with the Orioles proved he is in need of some major adjustments. The 27-year-old slashed .203/.278/.336 in 241 plate appearances last summer, and elected free agency after being outrighted by the Orioles to open the offseason.

It was another outcome that highlighted the shortcomings of Mike Elias' roster construction last season. Elias seems to have learned from that mistake; however, Baltimore has several position players who could have a similar trajectory that Carlson has had.

Colton Cowser could be on a similar path. There was a belief that the Orioles could look for a center fielder this winter, but they elected for an upgrade to their left field with Taylor Ward. Cowser figures to get first crack at being Baltimore's starting center fielder in 2026, but if his struggles remain, the Orioles' former first-round pick will need a change of scenery, just as Carlson has been.