Making sense of the Orioles lineup after the Dylan Carlson signing

Despite losing star outfielder Anthony Santander in free agency this winter, the Orioles were still shaping up to have a strong offense in 2025. It'll be reliant on Adley Rutschman finding his groove again, and hopefully aided by a Jackson Holliday breakout, but there are still plenty of things to like about the group as currently constructed.

The Orioles decided to throw a bit of a wrench into that plan on Monday by adding former Cardinals and Rays outfielder Dylan Carlson on a one-year deal. Carlson will earn $925k in 2025, and will have the chance to bump that a bit with a bonus based on plate appearances.

The interesting thing about the Carlson addition is that the Orioles' outfield was seemingly already full. Coming into the offseason, the plan seemed to be to play Cedric Mullins in center and have Colton Cowser in left. Heston Kjerstad was likely set to get the lion's share of playing time in right, but that was before the O's brought in Tyler O'Neill on a three-year deal earlier this winter.

With O'Neill in right, that would theoretically push Kjerstad back into a platoon role. We assumed he'd spend time platooning with O'Neill in right a bit, while also getting reps at DH and potentially first base. But with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn already locked into roles with the O's, Kjerstad was likely going to get pinched for playing time. The addition of Carlson only muddies the mix further, and could theoretically pinch one of the infielders out of a job.

Regardless, Carlson was a top prospect when he was with the Cardinals. He was ranked in the top-20 on MLB Pipeline's top-100 list, and earned the top spot in the Cardinals system coming into 2021. Things haven't panned out the way Carlson had hoped, however.

How does outfielder Dylan Carlson impact the Orioles lineup in 2025?

In a touch under 500 career games, Carlson has hit .237/.317/.376, albeit with solid plate discipline. He was an intriguing power and speed guy in the minors but neither of those tools has shown up in the majors yet. He did have some success in 2021, hitting .266/.343/.437 en route to a third-place Rookie of the Year finish, but things fell apart after that.

This past year was especially rough. Carlson and Jordan Walker collided in the Cardinals' outfield during a spring training game in 2024 and he never looked right afterward. He was traded to Tampa at the deadline and had his worst year at the plate, posting a .287 OBP with a dismal .277 SLG in 96 games.

Unfortunately, it's not just the bat that's struggled. Carlson has played center quite a bit but none of the advanced metrics like his defense there. Statcast had him at -7 OAA, good for a 6th percentile outcome last year. He's looked better in the outfield corners but given his challenges at the plate, that's just not a guy you want to trust in the lineup every night.

So why did the Orioles make this move? What does Carlson bring to the table? Well, he is a switch hitter, and he's been substantially better against left handed pitching over the course of his career. Though the O's added righties in O'Neill and Gary Sanchez, getting another right handed bat into the mix isn't a bad idea.

He isn't a great defender out there but he should be able to hold his own in the corners. Cowser can fake center well enough, so if Mullins needs a night off they now have two guys who can at least cover enough ground out there to spell the veteran. And it means that the O's don't have to try to rely on Daz Cameron being the fifth outfielder in Baltimore next year. And at the price of just under $1 million, there's basically no risk.

Carlson isn't a sexy addition. He's very much a post-hype guy looking to get his career back on track. And while he almost certainly won't replace Santander's production, we should expect that out of him to begin with. If Carlson can be successful in a short-side platoon role in an outfield corner, this deal will be a win for the Orioles. If not, they can cut bait pretty easily and move on to the next option.