Orioles eye surprise window for Ranger Suarez while Astros wallow in uncertainty

The Baltimore Orioles have been busy this offseason, making one of the winter's first splashes by trading Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Taylor Ward and then following that up by inking Ryan Helsley to take the ball in the ninth. It's nice to see Mike Elias being proactive, but the offseason's biggest need remains untouched.

The Orioles need a consistent presence atop the rotation, and many believe that Ranger Suarez could fit the bill. The 30-year-old Venezuelan southpaw is something of a throwback, with his low-90s sinker and high groundball rate being the keys to his success. And that success is something you can't really argue with, as Suarez enters free agency coming off a year in which he posted a 3.20 ERA and 4.0 fWAR.

The growing sentiment is that Suarez could be the next free-agent domino to fall, and the insiders believe his top suitors are the Orioles and the Houston Astros. With the Winter Meetings kicking off, we could see Suarez sign soon, and Baltimore just might have a leg up.

The Orioles are poised to beat out the Astros for Ranger Suarez's services during the Winter Meetings

While Suarez isn't expected to command the type of money that the Toronto Blue Jays surprisingly gave Dylan Cease, he is expected to make a pretty penny and get a long-term deal as well.

In the past, long-term investments in starting pitchers have made Elias skittish, though as the playoffs raged on and Baltimore sat at home, he acknowledged that that can no longer be a barrier and is the cost of doing business.

Now he might get the opportunity to put his money where his mouth is with Suarez. The Astros might be the chief competition, but they're already operating under a tight budget, and bloated contracts like those for Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Christian Walker, and others threaten their future flexibility. They'll also have to worry about extensions for rising stars Hunter Brown and Jeremy Peña, as well.

Furthermore, Jeff Passan notes that Houston is reticent to hand out long-term deals, so even if they could work some magic to get Suarez and still remain under the luxury tax line in 2026, they likely won't give him the years it will take to get a deal done.

The Orioles are in a much better position. The long-term contracts constraining the books down the road are virtually non-existent. A pricey extension for Gunnar Henderson does loom, and there will be other youngsters who need to be locked up long-term, but right now, most of what lies ahead for Baltimore is a blank slate.

And spending big with long-term contracts is the price of doing business these days, and Elias has promised that this won't be a barrier. If it truly comes down to Houston and Baltimore during the Winter Meetings in the Suarez sweepstakes, then the Orioles are poised to take home the prize as long as they stay out of their own way.