Orioles’ biggest 2026 question could seal Mike Elias’ fate

There's no doubt that the Baltimore Orioles have had a good offseason. The additions of Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley, and Chris Bassitt among others have certainly given the Orioles a better roster than the one they had at the end of the 2025 season. That doesn't mean the offseason didn't leave questions for Mike Elias. Questions that could ultimately lead to Elias' firing if things go wrong once again in 2026.

The question that will be front and center for the Orioles this season is whether Elias did enough to improve the team's starting rotation and how accountable must he be held if the starting pitching staff falters again.

Mike Elias' familiar roster flaw could be what seals his fate after the Orioles' 2026 season

Elias wasn't shy about the team's desire to add a frontline starting pitcher this offseason, and the case can be made that he avoided doing so. Trading for Baz was the largest addition to the rotation, but it's not without question.

Part of the reason why the Rays may have been eager to move Baz is that he has yet to live up to his potential. The Orioles seem confident that Baz can ascend toward being a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but that shouldn't be the expectation at this point.

Bassitt should provide much-needed stability for the backend of the Orioles' rotation, but he's not the frontline starting pitcher fans were expecting at the start of the offseason. Ditto for Zach Eflin, whose return to Baltimore seems to be another case of the team shoring up the bottom of the rotation.

If Trevor Rogers repeats the dominant effort he had during the 2025 season and Kyle Bradish stays healthy, it may not be the greatest of mistakes that Elias avoided the pitchers at the top of the free-agent market this offseason. Then again, the fact that Bradish only had 14 starts over the last two years indicates the risk in that being the plan for the 2026 season.

After a 2025 season that saw injuries decimate the plan for the pitching staff, one would have thought that Elias learned not to leave things up to chance. That is why second-guessing has crept in regarding the Orioles' offseason. It was good, but it feels like their failure to add a frontline starting pitcher could quickly change that narrative.

If that failure ultimately proves to be the reason why the Orioles miss the playoffs in 2026, Elias won't have much of a future left in Baltimore.