Orioles’ arbitration settlements a reminder that Baltimore is at a critical juncture

After a disappointing 2025, things are starting to look up for the Baltimore Orioles. The club made one of the most impactful free-agent signings in franchise history by nabbing Pete Alonso, and contrary to some earlier consternation, Baltimore is still looking to further upgrade its rotation with a frontline starter.

But while optimism is beginning to rise, questions remain beyond 2026. The Orioles are arriving at a crossroads. The decisions they make from here on out will be critical.

The club has enjoyed a young, cost-controlled core up to this point, but things are going to start to get expensive. Look no further than some of their arbitration settlements to see where this is going. Gunnar Henderson landing an $8.5 million salary in 2026 is a prime example. He's now being paid more than ten times what he made last season, and it's only going to get more expensive from there.

Henderson isn't alone, either. We're going to start seeing these youngsters getting paid, and if they perform, they're going to get more and more expensive as they move through their arbitration years.

That's going to put pressure on Baltimore's front office to decide what kind of team they truly want to be.

The Orioles' arbitration settlements are going to force the franchise's hand and make them commit to a path

For many years under the Angelos family's ownership, you knew that the Orioles more often than not weren't going to spend to retain their top talent. Now with David Rubenstein at the helm, we're going to see which one of his mixed messages comes true.

Henderson is the prime test case. Getting $8.5 million in his first pass through arbitration is a message. If the club were to extend him now, it would be enormously expensive, but at that number, his salary is also going to balloon to the point where he's no longer a bargain as he advances through the arbitration process.

More players who will follow that path, even if it's to a lesser degree, are coming. That's going to put the onus on Rubenstein and the front office to make some decisions.

Do they commit to winning and extend the key cogs while willfully paying rising arbitration prices for complementary pieces to truly contend year-in and year-out?

Or do they try to play things like the small-market mavens, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays, and flip their youngsters for prospects and pre-arb assets once the arbitration number gets too high?

The first path requires commitment and financial resources, but it can be easy to follow. The second requires a level of savvy that, even with the best intentions, might not work out if the club misreads the market or fails to properly evaluate young talent.

Failure, procrastination, and/or ineptitude are all pitfalls that can lead Baltimore back to the depths of mediocrity that we saw for so long. The future could be very bright, but only if the team has the conviction to make it that way.

The only thing we know for sure is that a reckoning is coming, and it will soon reveal what kind of team Rubenstein, Mike Elias, and the rest of the brass truly want to build in Baltimore.