One top free agent pitcher the Orioles should be looking to avoid this offseason

The Baltimore Orioles sure haven't been shy about remaking their starting rotation this offseason. Out is Grayson Rodriguez. It's Shane Baz. 2025 rotation members Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton will not return. Through it all, though, the Orioles have yet to check off the biggest box  — a true ace.

When the club re-signed Zach Eflin, it was fair to wonder if they were done adding to the rotation. The group they assembled had potential, but there it seemed like they were content to hope someone would ascend. Perhaps it would be Trevor Rogers taking the next step after a dominant 2025. Maybe Shane Baz would realize his potential. They may have believed that the whole could be greater than the sum of its parts.

We've now learned that isn't the case. Baltimore is continuing to pursue upgrades to its starting pitching and is targeting the top two remaining free-agent starters, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez.

Both come with top-of-the-rotation billing, but Ranger Suarez is someone the Orioles would be wise to avoid for one very distinct reason.

The Orioles would be wise to avoid free-agent ace Ranger Suarez

Suarez isn't your typical fire-breathing ace. Rather than overpower hitters, the 30-year-old southpaw is a throwback to the crafty lefties of yesterday, confounding hitters with an impressive array of pitches despite a fastball that averaged just 91.2 miles per hour last season.

It's hard to argue with his results. The former Philadelphia Phillies star posted a 3.20 ERA, showing that even in this modern era, changing speeds and hitting your location is an effective way to get batters out.

The lack of high-octane stuff isn't the reason to avoid Suarez. Questionable durability is. The lefty reached a career-high in innings pitched last season, but unfortunately still only tallied 157.1 frames. A true ace can regularly shoulder a heavy workload, but to date, Suarez has proven too fragile to be up to that task.

And in Philadelphia, he hasn't had to with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez all serving as workhorses in the recent past.

Depending on the construction of a rotation, taking a gamble on a guy who isn't quite the durable force you'd like at the top of the rotation might be okay. Given the concerns Baltimore has to deal with when it comes to the other starters in the rotation, this is not the type of place where that should happen.

Trevor Rogers has never topped 133 innings in a single season. Kyle Bradish has logged just 71.1 frames over the past two seasons. Shane Baz has made just 54 starts in four seasons thanks to injuries. Betting big on Suarez could put the Orioles in a huge bind, given his brittleness and the health questions that face the rest of the rotation.

So, if Baltimore is intent on signing a free agent to lead the rotation, Framber Valdez has to be the choice. The longtime Houston Astros stalwart's 767.2 innings pitched over the last four seasons is the second most in MLB. In that time, he's been every bit the true ace the Orioles covet with a 3.21 ERA.

It's not Suarez's lack of high-end stuff that is the concern; it's the fact that he can't be leaned on to carry the rotation through without some serious concerns that he'll break down. The Orioles simply can't afford that, and therefore, most avoid him at all costs.