MLB insider just delivered an Orioles' offseason prediction that is wildly optimistic

Most fans of the Baltimore Orioles expect the organization to be somewhat active this offseason. The O's were one of the most disappointing teams in all of Major League Baseball last season, and though they fell woefully short of their goal, most of the franchise's core pieces are in place heading into 2026.

One area of concern is, of course, the starting rotation. Without a frontline starter in 2025, Baltimore really struggled. While Mike Elias and the Orioles front office attempted to re-sign Corbin Burnes, the former Cy Young Award-winner chose to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Orioles will undoubtedly be on the lookout for an ace-caliber starting pitcher this offseason, and Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) believes that Baltimore will be in the mix for Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. Bowden ranked Valdez No. 4 among his top-50 MLB free agents available this winter, and has confidence that the O's will be one of many suitors.

Orioles signing Framber Valdez in free agency is wildly optimistic

Bowden listed seven potential landing spots for the Astros' southpaw. In addition to Houston and Baltimore, he believes that the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants would all be good fits for Valdez as well. The Orioles are the outlier among this group, with a payroll that's much lower than any of their closest competitors.

Bowden assumes Valdez will be the highest-paid starting pitcher this offseason, comparing his likely contract to that of Garrett Crochet (six years, $170 million) and Blake Snell (five years, $182 million). Will Valdez be able to secure a six-year, $190 million deal? That's a little more than $31 million per year — a steep price tag if you're the Orioles front office.

Will Elias and Co. at least kick the tires and see what Valdez's price point is? Of course. Will they be willing to fork over what it's going to cost in order to get him to sign on the dotted line? That's where Bowden's projection becomes wildly optimistic.

While Valdez is exactly the type of pitcher Baltimore would love to have heading into next season, free agent starters like Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Tyler Mahle might be more likely targets for the O's this offseason.