Jackson Holliday's impending return could be exactly what the Orioles need right now

Jackson Holliday was one of three players to go down in the first week of spring training, along with Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor. Carroll and Lindor each rushed their recoveries, and both made it back in time to be on the opening-day roster. For whatever reason, the Orioles have decided to play it much safer with their young second baseman and have Holliday start the season in the minors on a rehab assignment.

That assignment is now almost complete, and Holliday's return is imminent, prompting the question: What can Orioles fans expect from Holliday upon his return?

When it comes to hamate injuries, the main thing that you have to worry about is the power. Over the past few years, notable players like Jose Ramirez and Mike Trout have suffered similar injuries, and the most notable impact was on their home run and extra-base hit totals. This is because recovering from a hamate injury means resting your injured hand, and that means that important hitting muscles in the hands, wrist, and forearms get weaker.

Looking at the two players who also had hamate bone injuries this year can give an idea of what Holliday might face.

In 2025, Lindor had a max exit velocity of 112.9 mph, a 90th percentile exit velocity of 104.5, and an average exit velocity of 90.1. So far in 2026, those numbers are 106.5, 102.5, and 88.5. That's a meaningful drop. On the other hand, Carroll's 2026 EVs are right on line with his 2025 numbers.

Holliday's injury and corresponding surgery were more similar to Carroll's, and his Triple-A exit velos are closely in line with what his 2025 season numbers were, so it seems likely that Holliday's strength and bat speed are intact, and he may be able to avoid the power drought that the hamate injury typically threatens.

Jackson's Holliday hand appears to be healthy, now it's just a matter of getting MLB ready

If Holliday's hand strength is ok the important question shifts to whether he is ready to play major league baseball.

Holliday's stats during this rehab assignment so far haven't been great, but that was to be expected given that he didn't play in a single spring training game this year. Reps-wise, he's right, where most players were in early March, which is to say not fully ramped up. In a perfect world, the Orioles would give him another couple of weeks to finish his ramp-up before joining the major league team.

The Orioles, for their part, seem to be doing what they can to give him enough time to fully recover, despite a rash of injuries this weekend. On Monday, Albernaz announced that Holliday will not be rushed to the big leagues this week, and it seems that should the Orioles need an emergency bat, Weston Wilson will be the one called upon to fill in.

Orioles fans should be prepared to see Holliday in the next couple of weeks and to expect a slow start, both on offense and defense. After a couple of weeks to get up to speed, he'll start to look like his normal self around mid-May.

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