How this former slugger became the Orioles’ worst gamble in 2025

By now, Baltimore Orioles fans have sadly become accustomed to the front office avoiding big names in free agency. Aside from the Corbin Burnes trade ahead of the 2024 season, the Orioles under, Mike Elias, have taken the approach of building from within while eschewing the big contracts and trades necessary to add top-level big league talent. That doesn't mean Baltimore has completely avoided signings, however, and at least one free agent deal is looking more and more like a mistake.

Tyler O'Neill's first few years in the majors were marked by massive promise as well as an inability to stay healthy. His 2021 season showed what he was capable of when he was able to play a full season, but it was the only year in which he played more than 113 games.

The Orioles, however, saw an intriguing buy-low opportunity and signed O'Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal this past offseason. Nevertheless, calling the O'Neill signing a bust (so far) is a bit of an understatement.

Orioles taking a chance on Tyler O'Neill has backfired on a number of levels

The most obvious problem with O'Neill has been his availability. He's only managed to play in 46 games for Baltimore this season, and some of those absences have been performance-based. O'Neill's dealt with neck, shoulder, and wrist issues this season, adding to his already lengthy injury history. With two years left on his current deal, there's no sign whatsoever that his body can hold up for a full season.

Beyond the injury concerns, O'Neill hasn't been very good when he's been on the field. He owns a .208/.290/.416 line in 176 plate appearances this season. One can blame the injuries for some of that, but his average exit velocity has dipped, and combined with his ever-present swing and miss concerns, that's not a good sign. That said, his barrel rate remains elite, so there is still a chance that O'Neill could find ways to make an impact going forward.

If the Orioles had to do it all over again, they probably wouldn't have signed O'Neill. As good as he can be, O'Neill just can't stay healthy, and now it looks like all of those injuries have caught up with him.

With all of the position player talent Baltimore has on the roster, it wouldn't be shocking to see the front office attempt to trade O'Neill this coming offseason. With all of his issues, however, they may find it difficult to find a list of suitors unless the Orioles are willing to eat some of his remaining salary.

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