Heston Kjerstad's surge (and one flaw) complicates Orioles' Opening Day roster call

After missing most of the 2025 season with a mysterious injury, Heston Kjerstad is back for the 2026 season, and so far this spring training, he's swinging a hot bat. The Orioles drafted Kjerstad with the number two pick in the 2020 draft because they believed in his offensive ability. After so many years being held back by injury and illness, the idea that he might finally be ready to fulfill his potential is exciting, but if he can't prove himself in the field, it's going to be hard to find a spot for him on the team.

Spring training can be full of red herrings. Every year, some players put up guady spring training stat lines and then go on to do absolutely nothing in the regular season. However, with Kjerstad's production, the numbers under the hood are more important than the fact that he's slashing .429/.467/.714.

A big reason why Kjerstad hasn't worked out over the past couple of seasons has been his swing. When Kjerstad debuted in 2023, his bat speed was 72.9 mph, and his average exit velocity was 92.3. Those are solid numbers for a power hitter. In 2025, his bat speed was all the way down to 69.4 mph, and his average exit velocity slumped to 88.8 mph.

Some hitters can succeed with metrics like that, but Kjerstad does not appear to be one of them. For him to survive in the majors, he has to lean on his power, and swinging the bat fast and hitting the ball hard is a big part of power hitting. The whole league saw what slow-swinging Heston Kjerstad looked like last year; it wasn't good.

Watching Kjerstad this spring, it seems he has at least fixed that issue. On Sunday against the Red Sox, Kjerstad went 3-3 at the plate with balls hit at 108.8, 106.3, and 95.7 mph. All three of those hits count as "hard hit balls". In Kjerstad's previous three games, he hit balls at 107.7, 101, 103.1, and 100.5 mph. It's been a hard-hitting parade all spring.

That kind of production makes having Kjerstad on the major league team an enticing proposition, but the way he's played in the field so far could force the Orioles to start the season in Triple-A and wait for injury or underperformance to get his shot.

Heston Kjerstad's bat looks rejuvenated, but his defensive weaknesses remain

With Kjerstad, it's never looked comfortable in the outfield, and this spring has been no different. There have been multiple balls hit his direction that have found the grass, where it's easy to imagine a more adept fielder getting his glove in the way, that's without including the home run that bounced off his glove.

It's ok for a team to have a few bad defenders on the roster who are there to hit; the issue for Kjerstad is that the Orioles are near capacity for bad defense. Pete Alonso is not a good defender; Samuel Basallo is not a good defender; if Coby Mayo is at third, he's not a good defender; the Orioles' two veteran outfielders, Taylor Ward and Tyler O'Neill, are not good defenders. Ryan Mountcastle is a good defender at first, but he's boxed out of playing time, so he's basically been reduced to a DH/PH.

That's a lot of roster space dedicated to bad defensive players, and Kjerstad would make one more. Teams like to have their bench players be positionally versatile so that they can fill in well at multiple positions in the case of an injury or a situation that requires more defense than offense. Kjerstad does not provide that versatility.