Breaking down Heston Kjerstad's paths to playing time with the Orioles in 2026

Heston Kjerstad is in a unique position. After his last two MLB seasons were ended by incredibly unfortunate injuries and mysterious and seemingly serious health concerns, he is back and ready to compete for a roster spot on the 2026 Baltimore Orioles.

Because of his lack of availability over the last few years, the Orioles have made the understandable decision to build the roster as if Heston Kjerstad was not going to be a part of the equation. They currently have four outfielders on the depth chart ahead of him, and that doesn't even factor in the backup centerfielder, which is a role that Kjerstad can't fill.

As of right now, Kjerstad appears to be quite thoroughly blocked from any playing time, which begs the question: without an injury, what would have to happen for Kjerstad to make the opening day roster?

2 paths that could lead to Heston Kjerstad joining the opening day roster

1. Drastically outperforming Dylan Beavers in spring training

Dylan Beavers is the only starting-caliber outfielder the Orioles could even consider swapping out for Heston Kjerstad. O'Neill and Ward are getting paid too much, and Cowser is set to be the everyday centerfielder. So Beavers is the only person whom Kjerstad could even hypothetically beat out.

Beavers is the Orioles' top outfield prospect and is coming off a very impressive first taste of MLB experience, so for the Orioles to even consider rolling with Kjerstad over him, there would have to be a massive gap in their spring training performance. Even then, it's possible the Orioles would still defer to Beavers.

It would have to be more than just Kjerstad's slashline looks better than Beaver's at the end of spring training. It would have to be a situation where Kjerstad puts up incredible numbers in spring training, and the way he gets that production would have to look different than it has in recent seasons, more pull power and increased bat speed. On top of that, Beavers would have to show signs of regression.

It's an unlikely scenario but it could happen.

2. Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle are traded and Kjerstad takes over as backup 1B and DH

Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo are both overqualified to be the backup first baseman behind one of the most durable players in baseball. They are both more valuable to the Orioles as trade chips than as part-time bench players. That's where Kjerstad comes in.

Kjerstad has no trade value. At this point in his career, Kjerstad's best bet at being a big leaguer is riding the bench behind Alonso as the backup first baseman and getting occasional playing time at DH and corner outfield when someone needs a day off or there is a good pitching matchup for him.

As far as roster fit, this scenario makes sense, but with just a few weeks left before the season starts, it seems unlikely that the Orioles can trade both Mayo and Mountcastle, and if either of them is still on the team, they're both better at first base than Kjerstad and therefore better backup first basemen than Kjerstad.

Besides those two scenarios, there's no other way for Kjerstad to make the team without an injury. Neither of those scenarios seems especially likely, so the most probable outcome for Kjerstad is that he starts the season in Triple-A as depth and waits until he gets an opportunity.