Here is the extension the Orioles should offer Gunnar Henderson right now

At some point, the Baltimore Orioles have to do the thing good teams do: pay the homegrown superstar before Scott Boras turns Camden Yards into a “thanks for the memories” press conference.

Gunnar Henderson is the rare infielder who can be a lineup engine and a defensive anchor. Despite a relatively quiet 2025 season, he’s still the kind of player you plan pennant windows around, not the kind you cross your fingers about in arbitration hearings.

Henderson is set to enter his first year of arbitration, and he’s under team control through the end of 2028, which means the Orioles still have leverage. But don’t mistake it for comfort. 

A massive Gunnar Henderson extension would be the Orioles’ loudest statement yet

If Henderson plays anything close to the 2024 version of himself, his arbitration numbers are going to climb fast. Projections for his first arbitration salary are already in the neighborhood of $6.6M–$7.5M for 2026. 

That’s before you get to the part where he hits free agency after 2028 at age-27-in-his-prime territory. So if Baltimore wants to avoid a future where they’re bidding against half the league (and a few teams that treat the luxury tax like a tip jar), the offer needs to be serious, clean, and Boras-proof.

Here’s the extension Baltimore should slide across the table right now:

11 years, $395 million (with the $30M bonus spread out)

• $30 million signing bonus, paid out over 5 years ($6M each year from 2026–2030)
• $365 million in base salary
• Opt-outs: after 2030 and after 2032 (because if you’re negotiating with Boras, you bring an opt-out as a peace offering)

• 2026: $15
• 2027: $20
• 2028: $25
• 2029: $32
• 2030: $36
• 2031: $38
• 2032: $39
• 2033: $40
• 2034: $40
• 2035: $40
• 2036: $40

Signing bonus installments:

• 2026–2030: $6M per year (total $30M)

So the actual cash Henderson sees early (salary + bonus installment) looks like this:

• 2026: $21M
• 2027: $26M
• 2028: $31M
• 2029: $38M
• 2030: $42M

If this feels massive, that’s because it’s supposed to. You’re negotiating with a Boras client who (politely) does not care about your payroll spreadsheets.

Look at the Bobby Witt Jr. precedent: Kansas City went 11 years, $288.7M guaranteed, with options that can push it significantly higher, and built in opt-out flexibility. 

Baltimore can’t walk into this conversation acting like it’s 2014. If the Orioles want to keep Henderson out of the free-agent spotlight after 2028, they probably have to beat the Witt guarantee cleanly. Also, Henderson has been a monster since becoming an everyday guy. FanGraphs has him at 4.7 WAR in 2023 and 7.9 WAR in 2024, and he kept stacking value again despite a 4.7 WAR in 2025. 

Baltimore fans already know the counterargument because we’ve lived it: the Orioles don’t do deals like this. Not this long, not this pricey, not this boldly. But that’s exactly why they should. Locking up Gunnar Henderson isn’t a luxury purchase — it’s the franchise announcing, out loud, that this window is real and it’s staying open. If the Orioles want to be treated like a serious contender instead of a fun story that eventually gets raided, this is the moment to act like it.