If this Gunnar Henderson prediction comes true his Orioles departure is a mortal lock

With so many promising young hitters on the roster, the Baltimore Orioles will eventually have to reckon with the fact that extensions will come due. Going the premature route like they did with Samuel Basallo, though, that comes with its own set of risks. In other cases, like that of Gunnar Henderson, the genie is already out of the bottle.

Henderson's first three seasons have proven that he's the elite talent everyone expected he'd be. Entering his first year of arbitration, he's already projected to get a relatively hefty salary, with MLB Trade Rumors predicting that he comes away with $6.6 million in 2026. Things will only get more expensive from there.

Once it's time for a new contract for the star shortstop, Baltimore could be staring down the barrel of a massive commitment. Bleacher Report is predicting that Henderson will get a $500 million contract once he hits the open market.

The Orioles will find $500 million to be a bridge too far for Gunnar Henderson

Henderson has already put the Orioles on notice with his comments about playing in a winning culture. With Scott Boras as his agent and Henderson already proving himself to be a star, the time for a long-term extension is long gone, and the club truly missed the boat.

While a .787 OPS in 2025 might not scream superstar, Henderson was slowed by a strained intercostal muscle in spring training that delayed the start of his regular season and may have impacted his performance deep into the season.

Taking a step back, his performance wasn't that bad, and a September swoon shouldn't put a damper on his chances of bouncing back to near-MVP form in 2026. All of that is well and good, but even with 30-30 potential half a billion dollars is an exorbitant price, even for Henderson.

At 24 years old, he's already seen his defense begin to decline at shortstop, posting career lows in defensive runs saved and outs above average at -3 in each metric. Still, only three players have reached the $500 million mark: Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Shohei Ohtani. Soto and Guerrero aren't known for their defense, and Ohtani doesn't even play defense (well, unless you count pitching).

The point is, bats are what get paid, and while Henderson is certainly on track for an enormous payday, he'll still have to level up some to reach $500 million. That's not out of the realm of possibility for a player with his talents, but even with David Rubenstein's deeper pockets, it simply isn't a threshold the Orioles will be willing to breach.

All of this makes it feel as if Henderson's time in Baltimore has an expiration date. If he realizes his gigantic potential, it feels like a foregone conclusion that in a year or two, we'll be hearing rumors about Henderson hitting the trade block. What is for sure is that by not being proactive with an extension, the Orioles have put themselves in quite a bind with the player who should be the face of their franchise.