Former Guardians star reliever could be perfect buy-low bullpen addition

The Orioles could use this buy-low opportunity to bolster their bullpen for 2025

Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins | David Berding/GettyImages

Earlier this week, the Guardians outrighted right-hander James Karinchak off their 40-man roster and the 29 year old became an official free agent. Karinchak missed most of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury that he suffered early in the year. He wound up pitching just 6.2 innings at Triple-A.

While he's fallen off a bit in recent years, Karinchak was once thought of as one of the better relievers in baseball. The righty burst onto the scene in 2020, when he threw 27 innings with a 48.6% strikeout rate while pitching to a 2.67 ERA and an impeccable 1.52 FIP.

Though Karinchak fell off a bit in 2021, he was very good when available in both 2022 and 2023. In those two years combined, Karinchak posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.4% strikeout rate in 78 innings. As MLB Trade Rumors mentioned in their transaction writeup, it was assumed that part of the reason Karinchak fell off in 2021 was due to MLB cracking down on pitchers using sticky substances.

There is some credence to that theory, as Karinchak had one of the biggest year-over-year decreases in spin rate from 2020 to 2021. He was also much less effective in 2021, after MLB started penalizing pitchers for getting caught using substances like Spider Tack and rosin mixtures. However, Karinchak was still an extremely effective reliever in 2022 and 2023, meaning that his success wasn't entirely due to a reliance on foreign substances.

Former Guardians' reliever James Karinchak could be a good buy-low target for the Orioles

At this point, it's a bit unclear whether Karinchak will be ready for spring training next year. There's been no update about the health of his shoulder, but because he missed so much time in 2024 we can't say for sure what next year will look like.

However, because of that Karinchak will come cheap. It's possible, maybe even likely, that a team will be able to scoop him up on a minor league deal and stash him away at Triple-A. In the event that Karinchak is ready to go for Opening Day, he could be transferred to the 40-man roster and make an immediate impact at the major league level.

Even if he's not 100% at the outset, he still has so much upside that it's seemingly tough to pass up an opportunity to acquire him.

The biggest knock on the righty is that he's wild and walks too many guys. Karinchak is a fastball/curveball combo guy and lives on the edges of the zone. His curve has been an elite pitch over the years and the fact that he's consistently run 40% or higher whiff rates on the pitch makes you feel comfortable living with the fact that he's going to walk some guys.

Ultimately, the Orioles might look elsewhere for help. They have other areas that need immediate attention that will be prioritized this offseason. But if Karinchak is really available on a minor league deal, that's absolutely something the O's should consider.

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