Baseball America's latest scout survey shows a potentially fatal flaw for Orioles

Back when Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, the Orioles were in a rough place. They'd just come off a 115-loss season, the worst in franchise history, and it would take Elias and his front office over three years to put the team in a position where they were even remotely competitive.

As it stands now, the Orioles are in a desirable position, with a strong young core and a handful of extremely talented prospects who've either recently debuted or are set to do so in 2025. We've seen Elias make some necessary additions, including pulling off the Corbin Burnes trade last winter, and boosting the payroll to over $150 million for the first time in nearly a decade.

But the Orioles have still yet to win a playoff game in the last 10 years, and the fanbase is hungry to see this team turn the corner and start winning meaningful games in October. Unfortunately, the latest Baseball America scout survey suggests the Orioles might be a bit too beholden to a rigid decision-making system to make the tough moves that could push this team over the top.

Baseball America's scout survey paints the Orioles in a fairly bad light

Baseball America recently released their 2025 scout survey, in which they polled 27 professional, amateur, and international MLB scouts to gather opinions on the state of the game. In general, the scouts agree that there are a handful of teams who truly care about their group of scouts and hold their opinions in high regard, and there's a much larger group of teams who seemingly have put the scouts on the back burner in favor of in-depth data collection and model-driven decision making.

In regard to which teams are the most scout-friendly, the Orioles were one of just five teams to receive zero votes. Asked similarly which organizations are the least scout-friendly, the Orioles received 12 votes, tied with the Brewers and just one vote behind the Guardians for worst in the league. Scouts were also asked which teams are best at identifying talent, and the Orioles finished in the middle of the pack with 7 votes.

Elias and his right hand man, Sig Mejdal, are widely known for their data-driven approach. Both worked together under John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow in St. Louis, and when Luhnow left for Houston, both Elias and Mejdal followed. In Houston, Mejdal was made the Astros' Director of Decision Sciences and was one of the primary figures who helped implement their team database, named "Ground Control". That database, along with Luhnow's intuition, helped build the Astros' behemoth system that led to World Series titles in 2017, and later in 2022 under different leadership.

But even in the early days, you could see the makings of their line of thinking. In a 2014 interview with the Houston Chronicle, Mejdal told then-Chronicle reporter Evan Drellich "The amount of data available to make your decision is growing, if you want to use the term, exponentially. It's just growing significantly, and human capabilities are not growing significantly. The importance of assisting the human decision-maker with decision aid is important in any field...".

Ten years ago, the Astros were prioritizing data-driven decision making over the advice of the scouting team. That obviously ended up working out, but it worked in part because Luhnow was willing to make what their model would have deemed risky decisions, like making the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. Most experts agree that the best path is a strong blend of both human input and data-driven analysis. Leaning too far in one direction or the other is what will get you in trouble.

You can argue that the Burnes deal is a step in the right direction, but Elias has yet to make the type of trade or free agent signing that signals he's willing to go outside the model's recommendations. Burnes was a one-year addition, just like every other pitcher he's signed in free agency. Long-term deals won't necessarily guarantee success, but adding top-tier free agents is generally a recommended strategy, especially when they solve a glaring problem for your organization.

The Orioles can win plenty of baseball games within the confines of their current decision-making model. But if they want to retain an extended stretch of success and truly push the team over the top, they're going to have to make decisions that make them uncomfortable. Maybe that's a significant trade, maybe it's a top-tier free agent signing. But they can't be afraid to take a big risk or two when all is said and done.

Despite all the Orioles have going for them at the moment, it's tough to look at Elias' recent track record and think he's not being overly risk-averse. To be fair, he's yet to really do anything wrong, and it's egregious to suggest that his job should be in question based on the Orioles' recent on-field success. But if we're still waiting for the big move, something to push the Orioles over the top a couple years down the road, it might be time to start question the methods this front office is using and whether they're willing to take a risk and plant a flag to try to win a championship.