Adley Rutschman’s 2026 season will reveal another Orioles front office fate

In many ways, the Baltimore Orioles have painted themselves into a corner with their catcher situation. In one corner, there's former No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman, and in the other, we have hotshot prospect Samuel Basallo. The Orioles' plan, it seems, is for both to be big parts of the equation in 2026, with both getting the bulk of the starts behind the dish and at DH.

There's a lot of risk associated with that plan. The prospect of having your backup catcher as your primary DH leaves you vulnerable in case of injury. However, carrying a third catcher doesn't seem reasonable given the other roster constraints that could force Baltimore's only real utility infielder, Jeremiah Jackson, off the roster.

At the core of all this is Rutschman. After a promising start to his career, the 28-year-old has endured many struggles and injuries over the past two seasons. Last year was a low point, with him hitting just .220/.307/.366. Baltimore has already made their position clear, signing Basallo to an eight-year extension almost immediately after he made his big league debut.

That decision really emphasizes the difficulty of the situation they face with Rutschman, who has fallen out of MLB.com's top-10 catcher rankings. Mike Elias and the front office now find themselves in the position where if they're wrong about Rutschman, they'll have egg on their face, but if they're right, the season could be in jeopardy.

Adley Rutschman's 2026 performance will tell us a lot about the fate of the Orioles front office

There was a thought that after Balsallo signed that extension, Baltimore would look to trade Rutschman this offseason. That was also a sticky situation. Coming off a career-worst year, Rutschman's value was at an all-time low; however, his pedigree, past track record, and the positional scarcity could all have been reasons why they still could've gotten back value.

Rutschman has two years remaining of team control, which also would have helped his trade case, but soon that value will evaporate if he survives the entire season with the Orioles.

At the same time, he's too far into the arbitration process for an extension to be a value, so if he rebounds this year, the Orioles will be accepting the fact that they missed the boat while also not recouping much in trade value as he'll be entering his walk year in 2027.

However, if Rutschman puts up another poor performance, Mike Elias's decision not to extend him earlier will be vindicated. That might save the executive's ego, but there's a very big downside to that outcome. Rutschman struggling means the team likely is struggling as well. Missing the playoffs again would be an even greater black mark than simply looking foolish at how he managed Rutschman's future.

It almost feels like a lose-lose situation for the front office. Rutschman's struggles would vindicate them, but could threaten their playoff hopes and, ultimately, job security. The former can't-miss prospect playing well makes them seem incompetent. The ultimate best-case scenario would be Rutschman playing well enough that he can be flipped for another piece to better balance the roster and make a playoff push at the trade deadline. That will take all of the stars aligning, however.