Aaron Judge's extended absence could open the door for Orioles in the AL East

When the Orioles got off to such a slow start to the season, and the Yankees and Rays got out to such a commanding lead in the division, it felt like the AL East quickly became a competition for third place. Just a few short weeks ago, the Orioles were eight games under .500, 13 games back of the Rays, and 8.5 games behind the Yankees. However, since then, the Rays have fallen back to Earth, and with the latest Aaron Judge update, the Yankees may soon go the same way, cracking open a window of opportunity for the Orioles.

Judge's 2026 season was going great by most players' standards, but poorly for the lofty standard he's set for himself over the last few years. In particular, he had not looked like himself over the past few weeks. In the 24 games since facing the Orioles in early May, he slashed .213/.324/.371. For a lot of hitters on the Orioles, this would be a nice month, but for Judge, it was kind of a disaster.

As is often the case when a superstar plays terribly, the reason behind the struggles was an injury. After Judge missed a few games against the Guardians and saw a few doctors, the official diagnosis was revealed to be a stress fracture in his right rib. Judge is now slated to miss four to six weeks, giving the Orioles a fighting chance to make up even more ground.

With Judge out, the Orioles might not have a better opportunity to win now

Besides being able to insert themselves back into AL East contention, Judge's injury could also turn the Orioles into aggressive buyers at the trade deadline. Although the trade market has yet to fully take shape, there will surely be a number of sellers looking to unload pitching talent for the right price. There might not be another team more desperate for good pitching than the Orioles.

Through the team’s first 62 games, the Orioles' pitching staff has surrendered 323 runs, tying them with the Houston Astros for the 4th most runs allowed. Not to be outdone, the team has also given up 557 hits, good for third most. While the Orioles' staff has improved as of late, it may be too much to ask of them to keep it up for the rest of the season.

With temperatures heating up outside, the battered pitching staff could be looking at a long summer. But Judge's injury could open that window of opportunity that the ballclub desperately needs. With the slugger out for at least a month, it could force Mike Elias and the Orioles’ front office to make some moves to add some much-needed arms. If there was ever a time to trade prospects for top MLB pitching, it just might be right now.

Now is the perfect time for the Orioles to go all in

Perhaps nobody wants to see a healthy Judge more than the Yankees themselves. His injury just might hamper their postseason aspirations and give the Orioles their chance to strike. Since Judge first entered the league in 2016, the Yankees have a record of 198-178 without him in the lineup. That’s good for a .527 winning percentage. While definitely respectable, the team scores just 4.5 runs a game. With Judge in the lineup, they’ve averaged 5.06 runs a game.

Simply put, the team just isn’t as good without their 50-home run bat in the lineup, making them vulnerable to losing ground in the division. Though it may seem opportunistic, the Orioles will have to take advantage of a prolonged Judge absence if they wish to play baseball deep into October. It will just take a more aggressive push at the trade deadline.

With the Mets continuing to struggle, pitchers like Freddy Peralta and David Peterson could be on the trading block very soon. While neither pitcher has looked incredible so far in 2026, they could slide into the Orioles' rotation quite nicely. Teams like the Angels and Giants are also looking like they'll become sellers by July, so there should be a healthy amount of trade targets for Elias.

Whether the Orioles make a few moves or not, one thing is for sure. The next couple of weeks will easily make or break the season.

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