4 Orioles prospects now at risk of the Rule 5 draft after roster decisions

The Rule 5 draft won't take place until the end of the Winter Meetings in December, but Tuesday was the official deadline for teams to add eligible players to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being selected. The Orioles had a number of decisions to make but ultimately chose to protect just two players.

It was no surprise that the O's added SP Brandon Young to the 40-man yesterday. Young had a strong year in 2024 and is in line to get a crack at the 2025 Opening Day roster. They also chose to protect RP Kade Strowd, who has lots of strikeout potential but didn't have spectacular results last year.

While there are a few dozen O's prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the front office's decision making yesterday, there are four in particular who could realistically be taken. It won't be the end of the world if any of these guys do get selected, but they're strong prospects and their departures wouldn't be ideal for the O's.

Four top prospects left unprotected ahead of the 2024 Rule 5 draft

FanGraphs has SP Juan Nuñez as the Orioles 9th best prospect right now but the O's chose not to add him to the 40-man yesterday. Nuñez had a 2.45 ERA in 29.1 innings last year and has electric strikeout stuff. He suffered a shoulder injury in May though, and never returned to the mound.

Just going by the data, Nuñez seemed like a strong candidate to be protected, but there's more to it. Nuñez is 23 and has yet to pitch above High-A. There's some uncertainty around the health of his shoulder heading into 2025 and he's an unlikely candidate to make an impact at the major league level next year, so you can see the case for leaving him out. Still, a team could look at his potential and try to stash him away for the future.

SP Alex Pham is ranked a bit lower than Nuñez, coming in on the FanGraphs list at number 26. However, Pham has a strong background and despite his 4.24 ERA last year, he did post a more encouraging 3.87 FIP with a near 28% strikeout rate.

The Orioles transitioned Pham into a starting role in 2023 and he's started 46 of the 53 games he's appeared in since then. He spent half of 2023 and all of 2024 at Double-A and if he doesn't get taken in the Rule 5 draft next month, should start the year at Triple-A Norfolk in 2025.

RP Keegan Gillies is potentially the most likely name on this list to be selected in the draft. The 26 year old righty spent all of 2024 at Double-A, throwing 47.1 innings to the tune of a 4.94 ERA, coupled with a 3.91 FIP and a 26.1% strikeout rate. Gillies' walk rate was a tick high but he's at the point where he could contribute to a major league bullpen right now.

Gillies is a big body - he's 6'8" and throws his fastball in the mid 90's. The splitter looked a bit better in 2024 but he ran a high walk rate in general, so there are questions about his command. Ultimately, Gillies has a good bit of upside left, even at 26, so it's possible a team sees him as an immediate contributor and scoops him up in the draft.

It might be a bit of a stretch to see OF Hudson Haskin as a candidate to get taken in the Rule 5 draft, but he still has upside after a rough year in 2024. Haskin underwent hip surgery back in 2023 and did not come back strong. While he put up good numbers at Triple-A in 2023, he struggled to find his footing at the same level this year.

Haskin's .213/.343/.300 line across 90 games doesn't inspire confidence. He failed to hit for power in his return and his defense looked questionable at times. However, entering 2025 he'll be working on two years removed from the surgery and he'll get the opportunity to prove that last year was a necessary rough patch in his rehab process.