Baltimore Orioles: Six Post-Winter Meetings Free Agent Pitching Targets

Will Shelby Miller become a reclamation project for the Baltimore Orioles in 2020?

In 2013, Shelby Miller went 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA with the St. Louis Cardinals and finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting. The former first-round pick was just 22 years old and had a bright future as a major league starter ahead of him.

His production dipped in 2014 (0.6 fWAR) before being traded to the Atlanta Braves and recording a career-high 3.7 fWAR season in 2015. Then came his 2016 campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Miller made 20 starts, going 3-12 with a 6.15 ERA, the lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rates of his career (up to that point), while more than doubling his home run rate. Over the last three seasons, Miller has been unable to reach the 101 innings pitched he recorded in 2016, throwing a combined 82 innings at the big league level since 2017.

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Miller’s 2019 season in Texas was brutal, going 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA and nearly identical walk and strikeout rates (13.6 and 13.2%). He was released by Texas in mid-July, signed with Milwaukee, but was cut five weeks later.

It’s been a tough ride for Miller since he made his presence known in 2013, but he’s still just 29 and has four-seam fastball that averages 94 mph and ranks in the 65th percentile in spin rate. Hitters used to struggle to stay above the Mendoza-line against the pitch, so maybe there’s still something there.

If not, the Orioles move on from Miller before the All-Star break and continue to cycle through a long list of starting pitchers. No harm, no foul, right? For what it’s worth, Connolly points out in his piece that Elias was a scout with the Cardinals when they drafted Miller. If the Orioles target Miller and decide to bring him in, I’ll trust him.

Asking if any of these names excite you is a pointless question. How about, which of these names could you stomach bringing in on a minor league/dirt cheap one-year deal for 2020?