Baltimore Orioles: Three Bounce-Back Free Agent Pitching Options

The Baltimore Orioles could look to sign a veteran pitcher coming off an injury on a low-risk/low-cost deal.

Over the last few weeks, we have highlighted four different possible low-cost pitching options the Baltimore Orioles could target in free agency this winter. If you haven’t had the opportunity to check any of them out, you can find the links below. Let’s offer up one final free agent profile piece, but this time we’re upping it to include three possible options.

Mike Elias has made it clear that he is looking to add pitching depth to come in and compete for rotation and bullpen spots in spring training after watching his pitching staff just barely crawl across the finish line of the 2019 season.

John Means may have earned himself an All-Star appearance and finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting, but Orioles pitchers finished last among major league teams in combined Wins Above Replacement (5.5 fWAR), home runs allowed (1.90/9 IP), and ERA (5.67)

Andrew Cashner was putting together a career-year before being shipped up to Boston, Aaron Brooks left the Charm City for South Korea, and Gabriel Ynoa recently elected free agency instead of accepting an assignment to Triple-A after being designated for assignment.

Those three arms accounted for approximately 18% of all innings pitched in 2019 for the Orioles. It was already hard enough to cover nine innings of a game when starters were skipped for extra rest. It’s going to be harder to replace that kind of usage over the course of what is sure to be another long season in Baltimore.

We highlighted RHP Ivan Nova (link here) as someone capable of eating many of those innings with his long track record of going deep into games. There’s also Robbie Erlin and his extremely low walk rates and ability to keep the ball in the yard. Or how about Jhoulys Chacin? Chacin has been successful in Colorado and had one of his best seasons ever on a really bad San Diego Padres team.

There was also a post about RHP Trevor Cahill. Sorry about that.

All four of these options are sure to be cheap gets with potential to turn things and around and command some sort of return in a deadline trade, but did we think cheap enough?

Here are three veteran options who have found success in the past but will likely have to take prove-it deals this winter as they attempt a comeback in 2020. It may be more realistic to expect the Orioles to look for these kinds of signings, similar to last season’s Nate Karns experiment.

The Baltimore Orioles can always use a groundball pitcher.

Last offseason, the Baltimore Orioles signed one free agent to a major league contract, RHP Nate Karns. Karns hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2017, but many believed he still had quality stuff and could provide valuable innings for a young O’s staff.

Unfortunately, the Karns experiment was a complete bust as he logged just 5.1 innings at the major league level. Instead of going after guys who haven’t seen a big league mound in two years, how about we shorten that one year?

Kendall Gravemann logged his first full season of work back in 2015 with the Oakland A’s, going 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 115 innings. He followed that up with a 10 win season in 2016 and a 1.9 fWAR year. Despite low strikeout totals, he kept the ball in the yard and had a noted improvement in his walk rate.

In 2018, Graveman was named Oakland’s Opening Day starter, but made just seven starts (1-5, 7.60 ERA) before being sent to the minor leagues and ultimately going under the knife for Tommy John Surgery. He would miss the rest of 2018 and all of 2019, minus three rehab innings in rookie ball and three in Triple-A at the end of the season.

The Chicago Cubs decided to look towards 2020 when they signed Graveman last offseason, know ing he would miss 2019 recovering from surgery. It now appears they have changed their mind after declining to pick up Graveman’s $3 million option.

Chicago could still look to bring him back on a new, cheaper deal as they try and clear some payroll for free agency, or were they looking to go ahead and part ways now, knowing Graveman wasn’t progressing as expected from Tommy John?

If healthy, Graveman is a groundball pitcher with a decent track record of limiting home runs, an effective changeup (35% whiff rate, .253 wOBA in 2018) and high-spin fastball, and a history of producing a lot of weak contact.

Can Michael Wacha overcome shoulder issues to contribute with the Baltimore Orioles?

Just on name recognition alone, Michael Wacha may be the most noted free agent pitcher looking to bounce back in 2020. The former first-round pick of the St. Louis Cardinals made more than $6 million last season, but recorded career-highs in walks (3.91 BB/9 IP) and home runs  (1.85/9 IP) allowed. He was worth -0.2 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs.

Shoulder injuries played a major role in Wacha struggle’s last season, but he’s 28 and was worth 3.1 WAR as recently as 2017 with the Cardinals. If he can catch on with the right organization and turn things around in 2020, a team in need of shoring up the backend of their rotation is likely to come calling at next year’s deadline.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Wacha signing with the Tigers for $6 million, which seems a bit high. However, it makes a lot of sense for a rebuilding franchise like Detroit or Baltimore to take a flyer on Wacha this winter with his low home run totals, 6’6″ height, highly effective changeup (.199 average against, 39% whiff rate), and respectable groundball numbers (49.5% last season, four points above league average).

In his seven seasons as a big league pitcher, Wacha is 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 1.0 HR/9 IP rate. He’s also averaged eight strikeouts per game. Of course, there are causes for concern.

Shoulder injuries aren’t something you want to be discussing when talking about investing in a starting pitcher, especially when that pitchers’ average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.1 mph to 93 mph since 2017. Wacha’s fastball was hit hard (..324 average, .556 slugging) and produced a career-low 12% whiff rate.

If the Baltimore Orioles are going to go down the route of a veteran coming off an injury during free agency, perhaps this last option would be the better choice.