Baltimore Orioles: 2020 Draft Position All But Locked Up

The Baltimore Orioles likely won’t have the top overall pick in next year’s draft, but second isn’t a bad spot to be in.

Ready or not, just 10 games remain for the Baltimore Orioles in 2019. While the win/loss record will look similar to last season’s final tally, at least we knew the 2019 Orioles were going to be bad. That wasn’t the case in 2018.

If there’s one good thing that came out of last year’s debacle, it’s the joy we get out of watching Adley Rutschman swing a baseball bat and gun down a potential base stealer. For the first time since 1989 when the Orioles drafted a RHP out of Louisiana State University named Ben McDonald (you may have heard of him), Birdland experienced the celebrations of a number one overall draft pick.

As much fun as the draft experience was from a fan perspective, as Trey Mancini stated in an interview with Gary Thorne just the other day, the players don’t want to end a second-straight season with the worst record in the league. It looks like that goal will be reached.

With an unproven roster and a pitching staff virtually untouched from the end of last season, except for Nate Karns, the Orioles seemed to be on a path destined for the top overall pick, once again. It turns out, the Detroit Tigers have been better at losing games while the Orioles have continued to fight to the last out of each and every game.

As of Thursday morning, Baltimore owns the second-worst record in the major leagues at 49-103, sitting 3.5 games behind Detroit for the top draft spot. Here’s how the top five spots currently shake out with less than two weeks remaining.

1. Detroit Tigers: 45-106
2. Baltimore Orioles: 49-103, 3.5 GB
3. Miami Marlins: 53-99, 7.5 GB
4. Kansas City Royals: 56-97, 10.0 GB
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 61-91, 15.5 GB

Unless there’s a major shakeup, this current grouping is likely to look exactly the same come September 29th, giving Baltimore the second overall pick in the 2020 draft.

If so, it will be the first time that the Orioles have ever drafted second in the MLB draft. The organization has had a top-five pick 11 times in its franchise history, but never the second overall pick. They’ve had the third overall pick just once, back in 2010. A shortstop named Manny Machado was the name on the draft card. I hear he’s with the San Diego Padres now.

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Baltimore has 10 games remaining on their schedule, including four against Toronto, three against Boston, and three against Seattle. They are 8-8 vs the Jays and will likely continue to trade games. However, the Orioles are 5-11 against Boston this year and 1-3 vs Seattle.

Detroit has seven games remaining against the Chicago White Sox, three against Minnesota, and one more vs the Indians. They are a combined 9-19 vs Minnesota and Chicago. The White Sox aren’t winning very many games lately, but they are piling on the runs and have not been easy to take down as they work in a few exciting, young pieces into the lineup.

Keep an eye on Miami. They are off Thursday before finishing their schedule with three against Washington, and four vs New York and three vs Philadelphia on the road. All three teams are in a tight race for the two National League Wild Card spots.

According to Fangraphs, here’s how the Orioles, Tigers, and Marlins are projected to finish the season:

1. Tigers: 50-112
2. Orioles: 54-108 (4 GB)
3. Marlins: 57-105 (7 GB)

A seven-game improvement over 2018 with this roster and the opportunity to add another elite prospect in the 2020 MLB draft? I’ll take it.

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