Baltimore Orioles: Whiffs, Knuckle-Curves, And More Nate Karns

There’s a lot to like about the newest pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

Signing Nate Karns isn’t going to add very many wins to the Baltimore Orioles final line, but the acquisition is still an interesting move to look at a bit more closely. Attempting to come back from elbow inflammation and thoracic outlet surgery which has cost him nearly two years, Karns has shown an ability to be a very solid back-end of a rotation piece.

Karns’ pitching repertoire includes a fastball that sits at around 93 mph, a changeup, and his highly impressive knuckle-curve. I want to dive deeper into his knuckle-curve in a moment, but first, a look at his overall numbers.

Karns made his MLB debut in 2013 with the Washington Nationals, logging only three starts. The Nats traded him right before spring training of 2014 to the Tampa Bay Rays, where he again logged three starts at the major league level.

The only two seasons of healthy workloads came in 2015 (Tampa Bay) and 2016 (Seattle). In those two seasons, Karns made 49 appearances (41 starts), posting a combined 13-7 record and 4.26 ERA across 241 innings. His 2.9 fWAR across these two seasons would rank fourth among Baltimore Orioles starting pitchers during the same time span, falling behind Ubaldo Jimenez (4.6), Kevin Gausman (4.5), and Chris Tillman (4.3). Karns achieved this in nearly 100 fewer innings than Tillmann and close to 70 fewer innings than Jimenez.

Newest Baltimore Orioles signing brings a small sample of success.

One of the main reasons I’m excited about this signing his ability to miss bats. Between 2015 and 2016, Karns ranked 20th in all of baseball with a 9.17 K/9 IP rate. Better than Justin Verlander, Drew Smyly, and David Price, just to name a few. Going back to 2010, only one Orioles’ pitcher has bested a 9.17 K/9 rate and Karns’ 24% K-rate, 2018 Dylan Bundy (9.65 K/9, 24.5%).

The curveball is Karns’ money pitch. Go back to his 2015 season, where he threw the knuckle-curve 29% of the time, limiting hitters to a .173 average and .202 wOBA while producing a 31% whiff rate. In 2016, his usage of the curve increased to 36% where it was equally as effective, maintaining a 31% whiff rate.

Before he was shut down in 2017, Karns’ curve was lights out. Opponents were hitting .169 against the pitch and whiffing at a 48% clip. When contact was made, it was typically a weak groundball (83 mph average exit velocity, 1-degree launch angle).

Across his entire career, the pitch has produced an impressive stat line:

.189 average

37% strikeout rate

54 wRC+

51% groundball rate

15% swinging-strike rate

More from Birds Watcher

• Baltimore Orioles Sign RP Mychal Givens
• Gunnar Henderson: Destroyer of Four-Seam Fastballs
• Which Current Baltimore Orioles Pitchers Have the Best Curveballs?
• Orioles News: Should the O’s Pursue Eovaldi? + More MLB News
• Should the Baltimore Orioles Consider Signing Nathan Eovaldi?

Now the question is, can this sort of effectiveness return? Will his changeup continue to show improvement? How will he battle in the American League East? It won’t be a small task, but Karns will be given every chance and is expected to battle for a rotation spot in spring training.

However, this signing doesn’t go without hesitations. I’m not so concerned with the surgery, as there are plenty of examples of successful returns from thoracic outlet surgery. I instantly think of Tyson Ross, who found his groove with the San Diego Padres last season, before finishing strong with the St. Louis Cardinals and signing a one-year deal with the Detroit Tigers this offseason for nearly $6 million (after earning only a minor league deal last offseason).

The major concern is the elbow issue that caused him to miss all of 2018. A 31-year-old with a history of serious elbow issues doesn’t exactly invoke much confidence. However, there’s no risk in this signing and if Karns can rebound, confidence in the regime leading the way in Baltimore is sure to rise.

Imagine, if the new regime can take a 31-year-old, injury-prone pitcher who hasn’t pitched in nearly two years and turn him back into a serviceable major league starter, what could they accomplish with top pitching prospects like DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez? Free agent signings like this don’t spark much interest among casual fans, but it is a potentially very influential signing. And at the end of the day, if it fails, the O’s move on and try again.

On another bright note, pitchers and catchers report to Sarasota in less than a week. Baseball is coming, folks.