Baltimore Orioles: Tanner Scott is poised for a break-out season

Baltimore Orioles LHP Tanner Scott has the talent to be a shut-down reliever; 2019 might be the year he puts it all together

The Orioles bullpen is wide-open heading into the 2019 season, with Mychal Givens potentially being the only reliever with a guaranteed spot prior to spring training. Traditional baseball card stats aren’t exactly a cause for optimism with lefty Tanner Scott, but he has the skill set to be an elite back-end bullpen piece; if Scott can improve his command, he can be dominant.

Bullpen guys in the major leagues these days are a dime a dozen. Every year, there are 15-20 relievers, with middling raw skills, who come out of nowhere and throw ~50 impressive innings, with a high-2’s or low 3’s ERA and a good strikeout rate, before regressing back to their true talent level.

Tanner Scott is not one of those guys.

Scott finished the 2018 season with a 5.40 ERA in 53.1 innings for the Orioles. Scott wasn’t great; he had a double-digit walk rate (11.7%), his 67.5% strand rate was one of the worst in the majors among relievers, and he allowed a .380 batting average on balls in play.

The BABIP thing was a product of the dismal defense in Baltimore last year. The Orioles allowed an abhorrent -94 DRS, good for third worst in the majors. Alas, the Orioles might not be much better in that regard in 2019, especially if Trey Mancini is an everyday outfielder.

Point being that Tanner Scott was as unlucky as anyone last year. He had the highest difference between his ERA and his FIP among relievers (2.00), despite him having one of the best sliders in baseball.

The slider is a thing of beauty; the pitch generated an elite 54.98% whiffs per swing last year, and batters hit just .155 off it. When Scott has the slider going, it’s a truly devastating pitch.

His fastball is what brought him trouble. Though Scott’s fastball averages 97.1 mph and often touches triple-digits, it didn’t miss bats and hitters slugged .594 against it in 2018. The pitch looked flat at times, and hitters took advantage of it.

This is coming from a guy who made it all the way to number six on the Orioles’ prospect list in 2017, with an 80-grade fastball. The pitch has played a big role in Scott’s success, and he threw it 55% of the time this past year. However, he threw it significantly more often than the slider when he fell behind in the count.

Because of that, this chart is a bit more predictable than you’d like to see. If you didn’t click, it’s a breakdown of which pitches he throws in different counts. (It’s actually very cool, thanks Statcast). But as you can imagine, when he’s ahead in the count he throws the slider; when he’s behind, he throws the fastball.

Despite that, Scott did really well with his plate discipline metrics last year. His chase rate (getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone) was an elite 37.1%, and he posted a 16.7% swinging strike rate, good for 7th in MLB among relievers.

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Paul Sporer wrote at Fangraphs just the other day about pitchers who most improved their swinging strike rate in 2018, and how it can help drive success for pitchers. Scott isn’t on the list, as he pitched just 1.2 innings in the majors last year, but he has an elite swinging strike rate which is a great sign.

At this point, the slider is Scott’s best pitch. He’ll throw it against both right-handed hitters and lefties, and can get both to chase it down in the zone. The slider will continue to miss bats, but it’s how he improves with the fastball that will determine Scott’s success next year.

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Scott needs to rebound in 2019. A better defense behind him certainly wouldn’t hurt, nor would an advanced ability to command his pitches. That’s a tough ask for any pitcher but if Scott can figure that part out, he’s in line for a breakout season in 2019.

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