Baltimore Orioles: The Paul Goldschmidt trade, through the lens of the Manny Machado trade

Earlier this week, the Diamondbacks traded Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. It feels like there are a lot of similarities between that trade and the one that sent Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles to the Dodgers

The Baltimore Orioles traded Manny Machado a year too late. By the time Dan Duquette and the Angelos family were ready to make a move, Machado had just three months remaining on his contract. Though he was, and still is, a superstar, there’s only so much value to be gained in moving a rental player.

We saw that limited value in the return the Orioles got for Machado. Duquette got five players back from LA, including just one top-100 prospect in Yusniel Diaz for arguably one of the best infielders in the majors. Diaz might be an every day outfielder for the Orioles as early as this season, and don’t get me wrong, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, and Rylan Bannon have some intrigue. But those guys aren’t moving the needle on any top prospect lists.

The Orioles were never going to get the kind of return the White Sox got for Chris Sale in December 2016; Sale had three full years of affordable control left at that point. But the price for Machado would’ve been higher if the Orioles had been willing to move him at the trade deadline in 2017. However, the Orioles thought they could compete last year, so they waited.

Unlike the Orioles, the Diamondbacks didn’t wait to trade their superstar. In fact, they probably moved him too early. But like the Orioles, it doesn’t feel like the D’backs got the best return for Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt was sent to St Louis on Wednesday for RHP Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, second baseman Andy Young, and a competitive balance round draft pick. Similar to the Machado trade, the return for Goldschmidt feels light.

The trade really hinges on whether Luke Weaver is an effective major league starter, or if he fizzles out and works his way into the bullpen. Weaver mostly works with his four-seamer and change-up, with a below average curve mixed in sporadically. In 2018, he pitched to a 4.41 FIP with a 20% strikeout rate in 136.1 innings.

On one hand, you can see the intrigue; he has experience at the highest level and if he hits his 100+ percentile projections, he can help the D’backs win now. And with the D’backs having a competitive 2018 season, you can imagine they’re trying to make sure they get value from Goldschmidt while remaining in their win-now window.

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But on the other, Weaver is quite similar to Diaz in the sense that he doesn’t really fit as well as you’d like him to as the centerpiece of a trade involving a superstar on the other end.

Weaver pitched his way into the bottom of MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list during the 2016 season but the lack of a truly effective third pitch is likely to hold him back as continues to work in the D’backs rotation.

Kelly has been a top prospect in the Cardinals system for a few years now, topping out as the 32nd ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. He has become a better defensive catcher over the past couple years but he’s heading into his age-25 season and he’s running out of time to figure it out at the plate. He hasn’t been impressive in limited time at the major league level, posting a 75 DRC+ in 131 PA.

Many, including Jim Bowden at The Athletic, have stated the D’backs got their catcher of the future in Kelly, but that feels skeptical considering that Kelly hasn’t been able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag in three partial seasons in the majors.

Time will tell whether the Diamondbacks got enough back for Goldschmidt, who’s arguably the best first baseman in the majors. But looking at it right now, it feels too similar to the Machado trade: the organization picked the wrong time to move their superstar, cornerstone player and got a mediocre return for him.

When the Orioles traded Machado, it was too late for them to maximize the value in trading him. The Diamondbacks missed their max-value window with Goldschmidt as well, and there’s a chance it’ll come back to bite them, especially if the Cardinals keep the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs this year.