Birds Watcher: MLB playoffs thoughts and predictions

The MLB playoffs start this afternoon with the NL Wild Card game in Chicago, followed by the AL Wild Card Game in the Bronx on Wednesday. The Baltimore Orioles might be out of it, but here at Birds Watcher, it’s time to make some postseason predictions

The beginning of October marks the start of the MLB playoffs, and there are few things we at Birds Watcher enjoy more than postseason baseball. We have what should be an exciting handful of weeks left in the 2018 season and even though our Baltimore Orioles have long since been eliminated from the playoffs, predictions are fun!

So let’s take a look at the MLB playoffs, starting with the wild card games and see if we can pick the eventual World Series champ.

NL Wild Card

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Colorado @ Chicago (Kyle Freeland v. Jon Lester) – I could do 1,300 words on Freeland alone, but this isn’t RoxPile. He’s one of 13 starting pitchers this year to hit 200+ innings pitched and he’s posted a 2.85 ERA with 173/68 K/UIBB.

Lester has been consistent, if unspectacular, posting a 3.32 ERA with 149 K’s in 181.2 innings.

This could turn into a pitching battle, with the Rockies having the 6th worst wRC+ (87) in MLB, and the Cubs offense falling apart in September (76 wRC+, compared to 100 over 2018). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a game similar to the NL Central tie-breaker yesterday where one or two big hits make the difference.

Ultimately, I think Freeland out-pitches Lester and the Rockies outlast the Cubs in this one.

AL Wild Card

Oakland @ NY Yankees (TBD v TBD) – Of course we don’t know the pitching match-up yet, so the fun is kind of let out here, but I’d assume that Luis Severino pitches for the Yankees. The A’s could throw either Edwin Jackson or Mike Fiers on regular rest, but whatever happens, Blake Treinen has to pitch in this game.

The A’s will look to do what they have all year: get 4-5 good enough innings out of their starter, trust the bullpen to lock down the rest of the game and let the offense win it. The Yankees, on the other hand, are all about offense – with 267 homers, the Yankees surpassed the 1997 Mariners for the most home-runs ever in a season.

Unlike the NL game, there should be a good amount of offense in this one, and that favors the Yankees. I think the Yankees take advantage of the whoever the A’s start and take an early lead. Their bullpen is good enough to hold the lead, and the Yankees advance to the ALDS.

NLDS

Colorado @ Milwaukee – Colorado’s strength lies in Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, two homegrown pitchers having career years, and in Nolan Arenado, one of the three best 3B in MLB. They’ve out-performed their metrics in almost every category and they’re running into the buzz-saw in Milwaukee at the wrong time.

Milwaukee has the fourth-best bullpen in baseball by fWAR and their offense had a 109 wRC+ in September, but they lack starting pitching depth. Christian Yelich has been on a tear over the past month, pushing his name into the NL MVP discussion.

Milwaukee should take care of business in this series, but the Rockies will win one game in Coors. Brewers in 4.

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw in a down year is a top-10 pitcher in MLB and Walker Buehler is becoming a monster on the mound. They also have our beloved Manny Machado playing shortstop. And not for nothing, the Dodgers are best in baseball by wRC+, and posted a 134 wRC+ in September.

Atlanta’s biggest flaw is their inexperience in the postseason. They haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2010, when star first-baseman Freddie Freeman was just 20-years-old. Their rotation of Mike Foltynewicz, Julio Teheran, Sean Newcomb and the resurgent Anibal Sanchez has been great this year, with a 3.38 ERA between them.

Atlanta has lots of young talent, and I want to see them win this series, but I’m not sure they have the experience in October to get the job done. They should keep this series close, but the Dodgers are ultimately a better team. Dodgers in 5.

ALDS

NY Yankees @ Boston – The Yankees led the league in homers, with Giancarlo Stanton (38) leading the way, and Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar all hitting 27. They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball, led by Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. They’ll be a tough out in this series.

The Red Sox had the best record in baseball this year, going 108-54. They came back to earth in September with ace Chris Sale on the DL, but Mookie Betts is likely going to win the AL MVP and J.D. Martinez hit .330/.402/.629 this year. Sale’s DL stint will keep him from winning the AL Cy Young, but it was his award to lose for the first 5 months of the season.

This series will be a slugfest. Of all the series in the divisional round, this one should have the most offense, most homers and the most hate between the fanbases. We aren’t particularly fond of either franchise here at Birds Watcher, but we’re excited to watch this series. Red Sox in 5.

Cleveland @ Houston – Houston has the most talented roster in baseball, led by Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer. They won 103 games this year and will be looking to be the first repeat World Series champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

But don’t let Cleveland fool you. They may play in the weakest division in baseball but they have the third best pitching staff in MLB by fWAR. The problem is that Houston is first on that list. Corey Kluber (2.89 ERA, 222 K’s) is in the Cy Young conversation and both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are superstars.

The American League is loaded with talent right now, and there’s been a seemingly perfect storm this year. This feels like a World Series match-up in the divisional round. I’m wavering a bit here, but I think Houston’s roster is just deeper than Cleveland’s, and that makes the difference. Houston in 5.

NLCS

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee – For the Brewers to make it this far, their bullpen will need to go into shutdown mode and Christian Yelich needs to remain on his MVP pace. Former Baltimore Orioles draft pick Josh Hader led the league with a 46.7% strikeout rate and Jeremy Jeffress‘ 1.29 ERA is good for second in MLB.

The Dodgers have a more talented roster but they’ve been dismantled by injuries along the way. Kershaw has had trouble getting the job done in the postseason. Both he and Buehler will need to come up big at least twice each in this series for the Dodgers to get past the Brewers.

Milwaukee has just been a better baseball team over the season. As much as we want Machado to get to the World Series, I think the Brewers continue their run of dominance in the NL and make their first World Series appearance since 1982. Brewers in 7.

ALCS

Houston @ Boston – I’ve mentioned this a couple times, but these are the two most talented teams in baseball this year. We should get to see Sale v. Verlander twice in this series, and anytime the two best pitchers in the AL match up, it’s must see TV.

I can’t say enough about Alex Bregman breaking out this year. His .286/.394/.532 with 31 homers is extremely impressive for the 24-year-old, and he should shine in the spotlight this postseason.

The x-factor in this series will be Houston’s starting pitching. The Astros will score runs against the Sox non-Sale pitchers. If Verlander, Keuchel and Cole can shut down the Sox offense, the Astros will win this series. Astros in 6.

World Series

Milwaukee @ Houston – It feels too trendy to have the Brewers in the World Series, but they’ve shown over the past two months that they’re the best team in the National League. We have to compliment General Manager David Stearns on his work with the Brewers; he avoided tanking this team and built a contender with smart free-agent signings and roster management.

However, Houston is the best team in baseball at the moment. It feels risky to pick the Astros to repeat as World Series champs, but that rotation is a juggernaut and their offense is just too deep for teams to compete with. Houston in 5.

I think we’ll see the best postseason-baseball in the Divisional and Championship rounds, with the World Series being a bit of a let-down no matter who’s in it; the AL is just better than the NL this year.

The two ALDS series could both be World Series matchups, the teams are so good. Every game should be must-see TV. On the NL side, I’ll be looking to see how far Atlanta can push themselves with all of their young talent.

October baseball is always fun and exciting, and we’re more than ready for it to begin.