Baltimore Orioles: Predicting the starting rotation for Opening Day

As Opening Day is less than three months away, the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation has yet to be filled. Of course, there are still plenty of days to sign pitchers, but time does not stop for anyone.

Predicting the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation is quite a difficult thing to do. Two certainties exist, but that’s it.

A writer at MLBTradeRumors.com had some fun predicting the 2018 starting rotation in Birdland.

In a live chat, Jason Martinez with MLBTradeRumors.com answered a fan question about the starting rotation. This was Martinez’s answer:

“Here’s my best guess … Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Andrew Cashner, Derek Holland, Miguel Castro.”

He added to his answer with a little onomatopoeia: “Ewww.” It’s safe to say that other fans will agree with Martinez’s assessment of this possible rotation.

Later in the conversation, Martinez shared his thoughts on Derek Holland and whether Wade Miley would be a better option. His words: “The interesting thing about Holland is that he had 12 quality starts in 2017. He was just really, really bad in his other 14 starts. Miley was mostly bad in his 32 starts.”

Hopefully, Dan Duquette is not considering a reunion with Miley, as Martinez’s assessment of the former Oriole’s performance was spot on. Remember, Miley walked a league-high 93 batters in 2017. Ouch. The O’s need better.

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But, is Holland or Cashner better than Miley? Are they better than an “Ewww” rating from a baseball junkie?

Let’s look at ERA+, since it’s adjusted to ballparks. Miley’s ERA+ with the Orioles was 75 in two seasons. His career ERA+ is 93. (Higher numbers are better). Cashner’s ERA+ in Texas in 2017 was 138. Cashner has had up and down seasons, but his career ERA+ is 102. In 2017, Holland was with the Chicago White Sox and his ERA+ was pathetic: 69. But, his ERA+ in his career is 95.

Using these advanced stats, Holland is not much of an upgrade from Miley. Let’s hope that Martinez is wrong about his prediction that Duquette will continue to fill the rotation with mediocre pitchers.

Next: Please sign Jason Vargas as soon as possible

Miguel Castro could be an interesting addition to the rotation. He only had one start in 2017 and it wasn’t great. He threw 59 pitches in 3.1 innings, giving up three runs. However, his other appearances were consistent in a good way. His ERA+ for 2017 was 123. It might be worth a shot to give Castro some starts in spring training. The biggest question for Castro is how many innings he can last if he does get regular starts.