Will the Orioles Finish Last?

USA Today sent out its projected to wins total for each Major League team yesterday. The Orioles find themselves finishing with a record of 78-84, last place in the AL East. Not only that but only two teams projected to even have a worse record than the O’s, that being the Mariners(77-85) and the Athletics(66-96). USA Today fully admits that it just is a semi-scientific stab at the end of the year standings. Should fans be worried this could be right? For the last four years no team in the American League has won as many games overall as the Orioles yet for some reason the projection models always have them worse than what they end up. That could be looked at as a positive. The team constantly out performs what others think of it. What’s on paper never goes according to plan. But that could also mean the Orioles finish even worse than the projected 78 wins. One of the biggest question marks for the Orioles is the rotation. It wasn’t particularly good last year and that was before losing it’s nest option in Wei-Yin Chen. The current rotation is still missing a 5th starter. Rumors have link the O’s to at least very interested in Yovani Gallardo but of this moment he remains a free agent. Without making another move the current options already on roster include Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Vance Worley, and recently acquired Odrisamer Despaigne. It’s not exactly a list that gets you excited. The four would battle it out during spring training. Worley is the only pitcher of the bunch who doesn’t have options left to send down to Norfolk.

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Besides not having a fifth starter still other problems remain among the rotation. Both Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez struggled compared to earlier years. The Orioles have said they expect bounce back years from the duo but what if they don’t. The starter who recorded the best WAR(2.7) of any pitcher, not named  Chen, was Ubaldo Jiminez. The season Jiminez had compared to his first year with the team was a vast improvement. The Orioles will be looking for better consistency out of Jiminez, who had a very strong firs half and faded down the stretch.

The best hope for the O’s improvement in the rotation, or at least suitable to replace the quality Chen provided, is Kevin Gausman. The former to prospect is finally going into spring training with a rotation spot all to himself. He has shown flashes of brilliance when given chances but hasn’t been allowed to make consistent starts for the big club. Last year the rotation had 15 game winner, Bud Norris, in it making Gausman expendable to Triple A. Norrs didn’t have the success from the previous year and was designated for assignment opening back up  a spot for Gausman. In all Gausman would make 17 starts for the Orioles. Given a full season he is the most likely candidate at being an “Ace”. Unfortunately expecting that right of the gate might be a bit much but the other starters all consist of #3 or worse types. The other concern for the Orioles, besides the rotation is the “all or nothing” type line-up they use every game. The team scored more runs than the previous year but that doesn’t mean it was better. The line up still doesn’t draw enough walks and strikes out too often. That problem isn’t helped with new acquisition Mark Trumbo. Trumbo is set to be the every day DH for the Orioles. While he carries big pop and can’t possibly be worst than who the O’s trotted out there last year, he still carries a career on-base of only .300. The Orioles still have questions at both corner outfield spots. Last year they couldn’t buy an outfielder to step up and fill the spots. At one point or another the designated for assignment list included Delmon Young, Travis Snider, David Lough, Nolan Reimold, Santa Claus. OK not really Santa but you get the idea, it was a revolving door of poor play. The O’s are hoping to fill left field with Hyun-soo Kim, a 28-year-old outfielder from Korea. Kim put up big time numbers playing a the KBO but how that translates to the MLB is unknown at this time. The one thing Kim does very well is get on-base. Last year he had a .438 on-base percentage backed by a 101 walk to only 63 strike out ratio. If, and it’s a huge if, Kim can post somewhat similar numbers for this the O’s team than that would go along way to balancing out the lineup. That leaves right field as the other question mark. Right now the option is  the incumbent Nolan Reimold. Rumors are out there that if the Orioles add Gallardo to the rotation they would take look at Dexter Fowler for right. That would solve a couple of problems as Fowler has a career .363 on-base and a true lead off hitter. There has also been mentions of making a trade for Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce. Bruce is a left-handed power hitter with high strike out totals and low on-base numbers. Sounds a lot like other O’s hitters, right? At least his approach would fit in. If the rotation doesn’t improve either internally with current starters or adding a quality piece like Gallardo, than the O’s might be a 78 win team. I expect with spring training approaching in the next couple days we hear about more possible additions. The front office seems to still  be doing work. If not this could finally be the year the projections are right. Let’s hope they continue being wrong.

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