2 Orioles who've played their way onto Opening Day roster, 2 who played their way off

Believe it or not, we're now less than two weeks away from Orioles Opening Day. The Birds have just 10 games left in the spring training schedule, which includes a split-squad matchup on Sunday but does not include the Spring Breakout matchup against the Yankees which will take place later today.

Spring stats aren't always a good means of measuring player development and performance, at least in most cases. Especially with established veterans, most of these guys are out there trying to get stretched out and prepare themselves for the grind of the regular season.

But in some instances, younger players and guys on minor league deals are trying to play their way onto the roster. And some veterans are out there trying to prove they still belong with the big league club. The Orioles have a few players in each category, so let's see where they stand as of this morning and try to determine whether they'll make the roster out of camp.

These 2 Orioles players are making a strong case to be included on the Opening Day roster

One player making a ton of noise this spring, who we've already covered, is infielder Vimael Machín. The 31 year old signed a minor league deal with the Orioles this winter after spending most of the previous 5 years with the Athletics.

In 15 spring games with the Orioles, Machín is slashing a robust .419/.455/.613 with an impressively low 12.1% strikeout rate. He's knocked in 7 runs, and chipped in a homer and a steal. He's doing this on an unsustainable .462 BABIP, but the plate discipline is real and he's a capable defender at second and third.

Machín is outperforming most of his peers and despite the fact that he's not currently on the 40-man, there's a chance he gets the call to start the year. If Gunnar Henderson needs to start the year on the IL, it'll create an opening that Machín seems poised to capture. The O's can slide one of Jackson Holliday or Jordan Westburg to shortstop and utilize some combination of Machín and Ramon Urías to cover the other open spot on the diamond.

On the pitching side, most people probably weren't expecting Bryan Baker to play a big role for the 2025 Orioles but here we are. Yes, Baker got roughed up his last time out and his spring ERA doesn't look great, but there's more under the hood than you'd think.

The 30 year old has been figuring out how to get his changeup back, and it looks like he's done it. Andy Kostka covered Baker's changeup extensively over at The Baltimore Banner but Baker seems to have gotten it back to where it was during his breakout 2022 season with the Orioles. In that year, he pitched to a 3.49 ERA with a stellar 2.74 FIP in 69.2 innings.

With Andrew Kittredge set to start the year on the IL, the Orioles need someone to step in and take those innings. There were a couple guys in the mix but Baker is really the only one who has stepped up and looked good enough to warrant consideration. The righty will have to push past the bad luck he suffered in 2024 but if things go right, he could be a big surprise for the Orioles in 2025.

These 2 Orioles players aren't doing enough to get onto the Opening Day roster

While Baker is likely going to earn a spot in the Orioles' Opening Day bullpen, that spot could have theoretically gone to Roansy Contreras. However, Contreras is having a really tough time this spring. He's struck out just 3 of the 23 batters he's faced, walked 2, and given up 3 homers in 5.1 innings.

Contreras is someone the Orioles' front office clearly sees some potential in, as they claimed him off waivers twice just this winter. However, the righty has a career 4.80 FIP in the majors, and that's come in 234.2 innings. There might be a successful pitcher somewhere under the surface, but he hasn't been able to break out yet. And given his performance this spring, he'll have to prove his way in the minors before getting a chance with Baltimore.

One other guy who's bound to start the year in Triple-A is, unfortunately, Coby Mayo. 2025 is supposed to be Mayo's year, as he's proven well enough that he's capable of hitting minor league pitching. However, Mayo collapsed in his first taste of the majors in 2024 and he's not looked much better during spring training.

Mayo's slash line this spring is .143/.184/.200 and he's still striking out a ton, posting a 34.2% k-rate. The strikeouts were part of his downfall last year, as he struck out nearly 50% of the time during his stint with the Orioles.

Mayo needs regular opportunities against major league pitchers in order for him to adjust and successfully make the jump from Triple-A. Part of the problem is that he won't get regular playing time if he's with the big league club if everyone is healthy. There's still time for Mayo to get things turned around but there's a small part of me that wonders if he's best used as a trade chip and let him go somewhere where he'll get 500 plate appearances and figure out whether he's going to be a contributor at the highest level or not.