Why you shouldn't be worried about former top prospect's Triple-A numbers

The 2025 season has not gone the way anyone had hoped for Heston Kjerstad. The former No. 2 overall pick in the draft had a path to playing time laid out for him early on in the year with injuries in the Orioles' outfield to regulars Colton Cowser and Tyler O'Neill. Kjerstad, after flashing solid numbers each of the last two seasons, finally had the chance to show what he could do with more consistent playing time.

That's not how things played out.

In 54 games at the big league level, Kjerstad hit just .192 with four home runs and six walks, good for an on-base percentage of just .240 and an OPS of .566. He had hit the same number of homers in just 39 games in 2024 to go along with an OPS of .745.

Once Cowser returned from injury, Kjerstad was sent down to Triple-A. The conventional thought process was that Kjerstad would mash there as usual, as the outfielder had an .877 OPS with 28 homers in 158 career games with the Norfolk Tides. But the former top prospect has struggled mightily, to the tune of a .171 batting average and .561 OPS.

To most, those numbers seem incredibly discouraging. But, perhaps, consider the opposite.

Kjerstad's persistent struggles are an opportunity to remake him for a future in the majors

What would the takeaway be if Kjerstad went down to Triple-A and mashed once again? Perhaps that the outfielder is just a AAA-level talent, with a bat that translates against minor league competition but can't find any consistency against major league arms. There are plenty of bats that just can't make the leap, and it would be disappointing for Kjerstad to fall into that category.

What's happening, though, is that Kjerstad is even struggling against Triple-A competition, a level that he has dominated in his minor league career. So, the takeaway could be that whatever Kjerstad is doing at the dish is a change or struggle so detrimental that it is tanking his numbers at any level.

On the surface, that doesn't sound like something that should be encouraging. But if the Orioles can work with Kjerstad to fix whatever issues he's having at the plate, it could fix his issues at every level he plays at. If the outfielder was only struggling against big league competition, the takeaway could've just been that he can't perform at that level.

There is a big enough sample size to suggest that Kjerstad should dominate Triple-A. The fact that he's not right now speaks to the fact that there is a larger issue. Once Kjerstad starts to turn things around down on the farm, there's reason to believe that he could turn things around in the big leagues, too.

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