This undervalued prospect will be available to the Orioles if they're willing to buck longstanding draft trend

The Baltimore Orioles have a strong track record of drafting position players in the first round of the draft. Strong in the sense that since 2018, all of their first-round picks have been position players, and also in the sense that almost all of those picks have at least made the majors or are well on their way to making the majors. Not all of them have gone on to be stars like you might hope when the pick gets made, but considering the fact that about a third of first-round picks don't make the majors, the Orioles' track record of drafting major leaguers in the first round is undeniably good.

As good as it's been, though, that strategy is what has put the Orioles in their current situation, where annually they don't have enough pitching to seriously contend for the division. The Orioles' lack of internal pitching options forces them to consistently overpay in trades for pitching and sign a parade of mediocre veterans to expensive 1 year contracts to patch together enough rotation depth to just survive the season.

Over the last two years, the Orioles offense has not been strong enough to lift up a weak rotation, and the Orioles have been one of the worst teams in the league. A very disappointing outcome considering how hard the Orioles tanked to get their current roster of talented position players. With that being the case, it's time for the Orioles to try something new in the draft to try to change the direction the franchise has been going. It's time to draft a pitcher in the first round.

The Orioles need to try something different in the first round of the draft

The challenge with deciding that you want a pitcher in the first round of this year's MLB draft is that there is one pitcher who is regarded much higher than the rest of them, who is projected to go in the top five, and then all the other college arms are being consistently mocked in the teens and early 20s. If the top-ranked pitching prospect in this year's draft, Jackson Flora, doesn't fall to seven, there's not an obvious arm for the Orioles to pivot to, at least as far as most draft experts view things.

What the Orioles could do is offer an underslot bonus for one of the college arms projected to get later in the first. This would get the Orioles the first-round arm that they need and give them extra bonus money that they could use to go over slot on the 46th pick and get someone, and try to get another first-round talent in the second round, or they could spread out that money to take some shots in the later rounds on some high school talent that would otherwise be going to college.

If the Orioles were to do this, the most pro-ready arm in this year's draft after Flora is Coastal Carolina starter Cameron Flukey.

Flukey has a lot of traits that make him very draftable for the Orioles. As mentioned, the Orioles haven't drafted a pitcher in the first round under this front office, but based on the pitchers they've targeted in later rounds and in trades, Flukey fits what the Orioles like. He is big, standing at 6'6 and he throws strikes.

Flukey had a breakout sophomore season in 2025 when he pitched a 3.19 ERA over 101 innings, striking out 118 while only walking 24 batters all season. Coming off that season, he was seen by many as the best pitcher in this year's draft. However, Flukey had a tough 2026 season where he missed significant time with a rib stress fracture, and when he did pitch, he was not great.

The bet the Orioles would be making by drafting Flukey with the 7th pick would be that his underperformance in 2026 was mostly due to a fluke injury (a rib injury shouldn't impact a player's health outlook like an elbow or shoulder injury) and that his 2025 numbers are much more indicative of the pitcher that they would be getting. If that bet were to pay off, the Orioles would quickly have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, which is something they haven't had in years.

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