This former Orioles reliever turned All-Star closer is showing just how big a mistake the Orioles made last year

Bryan Baker had one career inning pitched in the Major Leagues when the Baltimore Orioles claimed him off waivers after he was designated for assignment by the Toronto Blue Jays. He spent the next four seasons with the Orioles as a regular member of their bullpen. He experienced highs and lows with the Orioles. At some points, he looked like one of their best arms in the pen; other times he struggled so much he had to be optioned to the minors. Last season, with the Orioles out of contention early and Baker pitching well, the Orioles traded him to the Rays for a comp pick in the 2025 draft. Almost exactly a year later, Baker is the Rays' trusted closer and has been named an All-Star, while the Orioles' bullpen is one of the worst in the league.

On its face, this does not look good for the Orioles. What has happened to them is something that every front office dreads. They traded a pitcher to the Rays, and now he's better than ever, and everyone is wondering why he didn't look this good in Baltimore.

The Orioles never thought Bryan Baker was capable of this

Looking back at this trade with the benefit of hindsight, it looks like a terrible mistake. However, the mistake that the Orioles made was not the one you may be thinking. Trading Baker to the Rays was not a mistake, and trading for Shane Baz was not a mistake. The mistake the Orioles made was what they did after making those two trades with the Rays.

To understand why this is the case, you have to accept that the version of Bryan Baker in Tampa Bay is not what the Orioles would be getting if they had kept Baker for themselves. The Rays and their pitching development helped make Baker into the pitcher he is now. If the Orioles had Baker, he would very likely be the mid-to-high three ERA pitcher he was for most of his tenure in Baltimore.

This is in part becuase the Rays are very advanced, and it's also becuase this is just something that happens with relievers. Every team in the league is constantly acquiring cheap relievers and trying to make an adjustment to their mechanics or their pitch mix that will unlock them and make them elite.

The Orioles have benefited from this. They got Danny Coulombe and Yennier Cano in separate trades with the Twins for basically nothing and then got elite production from them for years. This is also not the first time a pitcher has left Baltimore and then gotten a lot better later on. The Mariners roll Eduard Bazardo out in high-leverage multiple times a week. The Orioles DFA'd him.

Every team in the league can point to a time where a pitcher they traded or DFA'd went on to be better somewhere else, and almost every team in the league can point to a time they got a pitcher off waivers and turned him into a valuable arm. This happens so much around the league that no team in the league can afford to get bogged down in how many relievers got better after leaving.

The good thing for the Orioles is that they did get good value for Baker in that trade. It's not like they cut him and the Rays turned him into an All-Star. A bad team getting a first-round pick for a decent bullpen arm that's out of options is good business. Which is why the Orioles did it. They were not planning on trading Bryan Baker, and the Rays put something on the table that they couldn't refuse.

The fact that the Orioles traded the player that they took with the pick back to the Rays makes the whole story a little more complicated, but overall it's still good business for the Orioles. When the dust settled on the two trades, it's basically Bryan Baker, three prospects, some cash, and a pick for Shane Baz.

Controllable starting pitching is one of the most valuable things a team can get in a trade. As evidenced by how hard it's been for the Orioles to convince anyone to trade them controllable starting pitching. The Orioles used Baker to get the ammo to trade for three years of Baz, and then they were able to extend him for another two. That's a good result for the Orioles.

The next part is where the mistake came in. After the Orioles traded not just Baker but also Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Andrew Kittredge at last year's deadline, they needed to rebuild their bullpen. They just didn't really do that.

The Orioles needed to make their own version of the Rays' Baker trade, and they needed to do it several times over. They needed to go out and identify multiple bullpen arms with decent track records that they could make great. Instead, they got a bunch of arms with no track record and tried to make them good enough.

The Bryan Baker trade and the subsequent Shane Baz trade can be justified. The Orioles' refusal to put any significant resources into their bullpen this offseason cannot be.

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