This Craig Albernaz late inning gamble cost the Orioles a sweep opportunity

After getting pummelled by the Yankees in their four-game series in the Bronx, the Baltimore Orioles headed to Miami to try to turn things around. They got off to a good start in the series, winning the first two games. When their game three starter, Cade Povich, left the game after the third inning with an injury and the Orioles already in a 3-1 hole, it seemed like it just wasn't their day, but the Orioles battled back. Not only did the Orioles hang around, they looked like the much better team; they were threatening to score every inning, and even their outs were scorched in the direction of the Marlins defenders. Their bullpen turned in clean inning after clean inning, and the offense pushed across the tying run in the eighth inning.

In the top of the ninth inning, now with the game tied, the bottom of the Orioles' lineup was due up. The 7-8-9 hitters of the day were Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jeremiah Jackson. Two of the Orioles best hitters this season, Adley Rutschman and Leody Taveras, were on the bench and available to pinch hit. They never got the chance to do so as Albernaz decided to put the game in the hands of his very worst hitters, who, rather predictably, fumbled it away.

Craig Albernaz failed to put his team is a position to succeed

Not pinch-hitting for Cowser and Mayo when you have Rutschman and Taveras on the bench is a mystifying decision. Look at the disparity between what Rutschman and Taveras have done this year compared to Cowser and Mayo.

Rutschman: .313/.368/.563
Taveras: .277/.388/.434

Cowser: .179/.282/.209
Mayo: .152/.218/.283

Does Albernaz think he's in a Disney movie?

Looking at those numbers and trusting Cowser and Mayo with the game on the line over Rutschman and Taveras doesn't make any sense. The triple slashline isn't the most advanced statistic, but under the hood, there's nothing that indicates that Cowser and Mayo have a better chance of coming through than those other guys. Plate discipline metrics, quality of contact, and everything else all favor Rutschman and Taveras.

This isn't a situation where more context helps make the reasoning behind the decision clearer. Defensively subbing Taveras for Cowser in center works, and with Blaze Alexander on the bench, they could have had Rutschman pinch hit for Mayo and then subbed Alexander in at third once Rutschman's work was done.

There is literally no better spot to sub in Rutschman and Taveras than at the Cowser and Mayo part of the lineup. Once the lineup card flips over to the top, it's not like they're going to pinch hit them for Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward, or Pete Alonso. So it's not like there was a better window to pull the trigger on your bench bats than the one that was right in front of them to start the ninth.

It's also relevant that the Orioles bullpen was almost completely spent, with three of their better relievers having gone two days in a row and most of the rest of their relievers having already pitched in this game due to Povich leaving after three innings. The Marlins bullpen was completely rested; the longer that game went on, the more the odds would tip in favor of the Marlins. The best chance the Orioles would have to win that game was in the ninth inning, and their manager treated that crucial inning like it was a split-squad spring training game, where the main goal is to get guys reps.

The impact of the decision not to pinch hit for Mayo was compounded when it was he who made the game-losing error with two outs in the ninth. Booting a routine grounder and then hurling the ball into foul territory, allowing the game-winning run to cross. It was a gut-wrenching loss for a team trying to claw its way back into the playoff picture.

In the wake of the defeat, Mayo drew most of the ire for his game-losing play. On every platform where Orioles baseball is discussed, cries rose out blaming him for the loss and demanding that he be sent down. But if there was one person who deserves the lion's share of the blame for this loss, it's Mayo's manager, Albernaz. Albernaz had the opportunity to put better bats at the plate in the top of the ninth and better gloves on the field in the bottom of the ninth and fell asleep at the wheel.

Hopefully, this can be a learning experience for the Orioles ' first-time manager, and in the future, when he has the opportunity to decide between putting the best or worst hitter on the team at the plate with the game on the line, he'll start choosing his better players.

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