This contract is one the Orioles will regret having on their books the most in 2027

If real life baseball was like a video game, the Baltimore Orioles would have reloaded their previous save file at least a dozen times over the past several seasons. From frustrating playoff losses to poor free agent signings, there are plenty of things the Orioles organization would want a do-over on. This probably includes the signing of outfielder Tyler O’Neill. With $16.5 million due his way in 2027, O’Neill will likely become the player they most regret having on the payroll.  

After hitting 31 home runs and driving in 61 runs for the Boston Red Sox in 2024, O’Neill seemed like the perfect addition to the upstart Orioles. Baltimore had won more than 90 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in over three decades and there was nothing but hope and excitement surrounding the team. 

However, the Orioles were also fresh off of getting swept out of the postseason for the second year in a row. So adding a veteran presence with notable power to the roster seemed like a can’t-miss opportunity for a club that scored just one run in two games against the Kansas City Royals in the 2024 AL Wild Card Series. When they signed O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract in December 2024, it was difficult to see the downside. 

Well, hindsight is 20/20 and we can now see very clearly that O’Neill has been a complete bust for the Orioles. It’s difficult to call his signing anything but a disappointment over the last two seasons. With the Orioles finishing below the .500 mark once again and O’Neill worth just 0.2 fWAR in his time with the team, it is time to reload that imaginary checkpoint.

Tyler O’Neill has not been the player that the Orioles thought they were getting     

What seemed like a smart move at the time has turned into a money pit that is costing the Orioles a lot of money. O’Neill has simply been unable to find a way to consistently stay on the field during his tenure with the Orioles. He’s played in 139 games in two seasons with the team.

O’Neill has also been unable to provide any offensive production when he is healthy enough to be in the lineup. He’s hit just 19 home runs and driven 49 runs in just 412 at-bats in his two seasons in Baltimore.  That falls well short of the expectations that the team had of him heading into 2025. But you can only blame O'Neill so much.

After injuring his shoulder making a game-saving catch against the Tampa Bay Rays in late-August, it was clear that O’Neill was trying his hardest to make an impact for the team. That injury was ultimately determined to be a season-ending strain of his rotator cuff. At the time, O’Neill spoke about his mindset surrounding the situation.  

“All I do is try and go out and play a hard game every single day and give it my best effort,” O’Neill told reporters. “This is unfortunately the result of playing hard sometimes, and I’m just going to do my best to manage it and rehab it.” 

While certainly frustrating for O’Neill, the Orioles, and the fans in Baltimore, it’s unfortunately not all that surprising considering how hard he plays the game. Throughout his nine-year career, O’Neill has played more than 130 games in a single season just once. That occurred in 2021 with the St. Louis Cardinals, which also happened to be his best season in his entire career. He posted a career-best OPS of .912 on his way to a 5.3 fWAR season. His 34 dingers and 84 RBI were also career highs. 

The Orioles didn’t even need O’Neill to duplicate those exact results. They just needed any kind of positive result from their pricey outfielder. And a .677 OPS in 2026 is not it. But with multiple injuries forcing him to miss extended playing time, he’s had a tough time finding a rhythm stepping in the batter’s box. Those offensive struggles are completely understandable. It would be tough for any player.

Those woes at the plate would be easier to forgive if O’Neill added value elsewhere in his game. But thanks to those injuries, he has lost a step and his range in the outfield has taken a hit. His -5 Outs Above Average are a far cry from his back-to-back Gold Glove seasons with the Cardinals just five seasons ago. 

O’Neill isn’t a player who has failed because he hasn’t tried his best. He clearly wants to play and he wants to play well. So it’s tough to fault someone like him for giving it his all. But no matter how you look at it, he has failed to live up to his contract. That could continue to cost the Orioles dearly as they head into the 2027 season. With his expensive contract still on the books, it could even limit who they may target in free agency. Maybe it's time to play a different game?

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