The Orioles threw Trey Gibson in the deep end of the pool and now they're sending him to get swimming lessons

The Baltimore Orioles put their top pitching prospect, Trey Gibson, in a tough spot. Cluster injuries to the Orioles' rotation forced them to promote Gibson before he was really ready, and over his seven starts and one relief appearance, he struggled to find his footing before being sent down to make room for Dean Kremer to rejoin the rotation. With how poorly Gibson looked in his first extended stint in the majors, it's fair for Orioles fans to wonder what the future holds for this hyped up young pitcher.

Considering that the circumstances of his call-up were not ideal, it could be said that Gibson performed admirably. He did have the misfortune of having his turn in the rotation come up against several of the best offenses in the league. His first two starts were against the Yankees and Rays, who have been by far the best teams in the AL, and his turn in the rotation also came up against the Dodgers.

Even with all that context, Gibson's major league numbers were not pretty. He ended up with a 7.36 ERA, and his 6.79 xERA and 6.41 FIP would suggest that his numbers were not inflated by bad luck. He gave up a nearly 50% hard hit rate, which is not sustainable, and surrendered a 15.5% walk rate. Those two numbers go really bad together. Bad results for a rookie pitcher in his first taste of big league action is nothing to freak about. What is concerning, though, is how he's looked ever since he was promoted from Double-A.

Trey Gibson needs to find the command he demonstrated in 2025

Gibson's 2025 Double-A stats are what made many people consider him a top 100 prospect. In 10 starts at Double-A, Gibson put up a 1.55 ERA while running an elite 33% K rate compared to a very manageable 9% BB rate. He got a good amount of swing and miss and induced a ton of ground balls. He looked so good, many people were willing to wave his 7.98 ERA at Triple-A away as just regular promotion struggles that a lot of pitchers go through.

This year Gibson has leveled out at Triple-A. He's got a respectable 3.55 ERA, and he's back to inducing a lot of ground balls, but the strikeouts are still way down from where they were during his breakout in Double-A, and the walks are up. When he was called up to the majors, those two issues got way worse, and bad results followed.

The real issue is his command. Gibson throws a wide arsenal of pitches, and according to stuff+, his slider is excellent, but all of his other offerings are average to below average. That is not a death sentence; lots of effective starters get by without having the nastiest stuff, but in order to do so they have to command those pitches and be able to land them in the right places in order to be effective. Ever since Gibson arrived at Triple-A, he has struggled with his command. Average stuff combined with poor command makes for a bad pitcher.

The good news for Gibson is that the experience he gained from being thrust into the major leagues before he was ready is valuable. Command is the kind of thing that can be improved with experience. Gibson's command dipped when he went from using the Double-A minor league ball to the triple-A major league ball. He only has 100.1 competitive innings with the new ball under his belt. If he can use the next few months to hone in on what is causing these command issues and make a meaningful improvement, he should be a contender for an opening-day rotation spot next year.

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