Shocking Red Sox trade gives Orioles hope that Coby Mayo may have some trade value after all

On Saturday night, the Boston Red Sox and the Washington Nationals made a trade that nobody saw coming, with the Red Sox swapping rookie starting pitcher Connelly Early for the Nationals' infielder Curtis Mead. Mead is having a breakout season, so it's not surprising that a contender like the Red Sox would be interested in him, but until the very minute that the trade was reported, nobody would have predicted that the Nationals were going to be able to get a pitcher like Early as the return for Mead. If you are the Orioles and you see this trade happen, the main takeaway has to be that right-handed bats are going to be at a premium at this deadline and that they may actually be able to get a decent return for Coby Mayo.

That conclusion may seem like a stretch if you look at Mead's stats this season and compare them to Mayo's. Just looking at the triple slash, Mead is doing everything a lot better than Mayo. He's hitting for more average, he's getting on base a lot more, and he's outslugging him by 100 points.

So why should the Nationals getting a haul for Mead make the Orioles optimistic about Mayo? To answer this question, you have to think about why contenders are looking for right-handed bats at the deadline. The answer to that question is becuase they want quality options for when they have to face nasty lefties in the playoffs, and over the years, lefty-mashing platoon bats have gotten harder and harder to find.

Coby Mayo's ability to hit lefties could make him a surprisingly valuable trade deadline target

This season, Mayo is one of the very best hitters against left-handed pitching in all of baseball. His wRC+ of 193 against lefties is the third highest in the league behind only Andrew Vaughn and Paul Goldschmidt, who are both on contenders and will not be moved at this deadline.

If a contender's goal for this deadline is to bring in a right-handed power bat to crush lefties, there is literally nobody better for them to target than Coby Mayo.

Also, compared to Mead, Mayo is a better defender at third and first base. So if the fact that Mead is a butcher in the field didn't stop him from having trade value, it shouldn't hurt Mayo either. Mayo also has multiple years of control, so there is potential for a contender to view him as an impact platoon bat for this season and then a potential building block going forward. He's also making a rookie minimum this season, so he couldn't be cheaper.

At this point, it's possible to think, well, the Orioles are still trying to make the playoffs, and they always struggle against lefties, so why don't they just keep Mayo? One answer to that question is that they very well might, but there are actually two reasons for the Orioles to trade Mayo despite the fact that they could still use the lefty-mashing skill set he provides.

Reason number one is that there is no future for him in Baltimore. From the moment the Orioles signed Pete Alonso, they completely barricaded Mayo from playing his natural position of first base. The Jordan Westburg injury opened a door for the Orioles to try to make it work with Mayo at third, but it's clear to anyone watching that Mayo is not a viable major league first baseman. His long-term position is first, and that position is not available in Baltimore for at least the next four and a half seasons.

The other reason is that the Orioles' current team, which is trying to make the playoffs, has too many versions of Mayo and needs other kinds of players. What's meant by this is that the Orioles' roster has too many young former top prospects who are bat-first players struggling at the plate and not playing good defense. Every game the Orioles seem to lose features a defensive mistake or multiple hideous at-bats by these players. If the Orioles want to stop giving away games, they need to clear out some of these project players and replace them with more well-rounded players. With Mayo's future on the team basically sealed as being over after this season, it makes sense to move him at this deadline if teams are going to be willing to overpay for right-handed power bats.

It's unlikely that the Orioles will be able to get a player as good as Connelly Early for Mayo, but if a team reaches out and makes a competitive offer for Mayo, the Orioles should jump all over it even if they still intend to try to make the playoffs this season.

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