Several Mike Elias decisions have put the Orioles in their current mess

On November 16, 2018, the Baltimore Orioles signed former Houston Astros assistant general manager Mike Elias. Elias was named executive vice president and general manager and was charged with rebuilding the Orioles franchise following a franchise-worst 115-loss season in 2018.

Elias began the rebuild by changing the Orioles' organizational culture. He increased their analytical staff and hired Sig Mejdal as his assistant general manager. Analytics played a crucial role in the Astros' rebuilding process. By 2017, the Astros captured the AL pennant and World Series. Thus, it was understandable that Elias would bring this approach to Baltimore to replicate this success.

Next, Elias hired Brandon Hyde as the Orioles' field manager. Like Elias, Hyde had a reputation for developing player talent. He played a key role in developing the Chicago Cubs' young players, leading to their 2016 World Series title. The Orioles' rebuild got off to a predictable rocky start by winning 54 and losing 108 games in 2019. During the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Orioles won 25 games and lost 35, finishing fourth in the AL East.

By 2022, what can best be described as the “Elias Way,” the Orioles appeared to be making some progress. The Birds experienced their first winning season in six years by finishing fourth in the AL East with an 83-79 record. The following season, the Orioles captured the AL East by winning 101 games, but lost to the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series.

The Orioles made the playoffs again in 2024 as a Wild Card team, only to lose to the Kansas City Royals. Nevertheless, Orioles fans were optimistic about the 2025 season, believing the Birds could bring the World Series crown to Baltimore.

The Elias Way received its first litmus test during the 2024-25 offseason. The O's lost pitcher Corbin Burnes and outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency. Both players were instrumental in the Birds’ recent success. In response, Baltimore signed Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano and 41-year-old pitcher Charlie Morton to one-year deals. To offset the loss of Santander, Elias signed Tyler O'Neill to a three-year deal worth $49.5 million.

Multiple offseason moves immediately backfired for Mike Elias, Orioles

The transactions Elias made looked commendable in theory. The practical reality tells a different story. The Orioles began the 2025 season under a cloud of uncertainty, plagued by a rash of injuries to key players. Grayson Rodriquez, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Andrew Kittredge were some of the players bitten by the injury bug.

After an impressive Opening Day victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Orioles lost 19 of their next 31 games. Elias' moves essentially served as a stopgap measure to maintain the Birds’ competitiveness, rather than winning an AL pennant and World Series championship. Moreover, the injury bug revealed the Orioles’ lack of depth.

Two of the Orioles’ free agent signings have not panned out thus far. A recent article by Bleacher Report journalist Kerry Miller ranked the biggest free agent bust signings from the offseason. Morton and O’Neill made the list. Although his last two appearances were promising, Morton has a 1-7 record with a 7.09 ERA. On the other hand, O'Neill has long been plagued by injuries, playing over 100 games only twice in his major league career. He’s hitting .188 with a .280 on-base percentage and .325 slugging percentage in 24 games with Baltimore.

Elias missed several opportunities to bolster the Orioles’ starting pitching. Garrett Crochet was a possible trade candidate and is now in the American League Cy Young Award race with a 2.04 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 75 innings with the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles could have made a better offer to the Chicago White Sox to acquire the fireballing hurler.

Right-hander Dylan Cease was traded to the San Diego Padres before the 2024 season and finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. There was a possibility that the Detroit Tigers might part with ace left-hander Tarik Skubal before his breakout 2024 campaign. Yet the Orioles did not try to knock at the Tigers’ door.

There remains a possibility that the 2025 Orioles could rebound into playoff contention once their key players return from the injured list. However, if the Orioles remain out of contention, they may return to rebuilding a once-promising ball club. If that's the case, it's not a foregone conclusion that Mike Elias is pulling the strings.

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