Ranking the Orioles former top prospects based on how confident fans should be that they'll work out long term

For many years, while the Baltimore Orioles were losing 100 games every season, the only thing fans could hold onto was the farm system. After every demoralizing loss, you could click over to the MLB Pipeline or Baseball America and look at all the highly ranked Orioles prospects and their expected arrival and dream of their arrival to the big leagues. Over the years, some of those guys got traded, but now many of those names that fans were waiting for are here in the big leagues, and the results have not necessarily lined up with the expectations on each of these players.

With that in mind, here are the Orioles young players and former top prospects, tiered by how concerned fans should be about their long-term prospects of being quality MLB players

Gunnar Henderson and Samuel Basallo stand out as the Orioles biggest rewards from the rebuild

Henderson is off to a really rough start this year, but based on his track record, there should be little doubt as far as his long-term viability as an all-star-level player. He is going to snap out of this funk and be the MVP candidate he's been for the majority of his career.

Basallo is just at the very beginning of his career, but already his ability and talent at the plate are evident, and he should only improve as a hitter over the next several years. His ultimate defensive position might be questionable, but he'll be able to provide value as a DH for as long as he wears an Oriole uniform.

Injuries keep Orioles fans from fully trusting Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg

These are two players in pretty different situations. With how well Rutschman has been playing, it feels a little insulting not to put him in the same tier as Henderson and Basallo, but the injury bug has bitten him very consistently over the last two seasons, and he's already hit the IL once this season. When he's been fully healthy, he's been great, but that has been less than the Orioles would hope for over the last few seasons.

Westburg, on the other hand, feels like an ambitious addition to this tier because his injury troubles have been very consistent over the last few years, but he does fit the spirit of this tier in the sense that if the Orioles could magically turn off injuries, they would feel really good about having Westburg at third.

Dylan Beavers and Jackson Holliday haven't quite put it together yet, but deserve more time to prove themselves

These are guys who haven't played well enough to feel great about, but they've shown flashes of ability and it's too early to write them off. It's a little funny that Beavers and Holliday are the ones here because they were drafted together, and their paths have been so different. Beavers is several years older but just finished the first month of his rookie season. Holliday has a lot more big league experience but is just 22. That works out to make it too early to really judge either of them.

Colton Cowser might not be the player his rookie season made him out to be

Last year, Cowser played through a broken hand, broken ribs, and a concussion, so his struggles at the plate were understandable. This season, he is by all accounts healthy, and yet he's performing even worse than last year. As his strong rookie season gets further and further away, the more those results look like the outlier.

The Orioles can't afford to just keep running Coby Mayo out there if this is what it's going to look like

Mayo looks like he's lost all confidence at the plate, and as an offense-first prospect to begin with, that's not a good thing. He's chasing out of the zone and striking out at absurdly high rates. When he does make contact, it's almost always a soft chopper to the left side of the infield.

Mayo has had an unfortunate career journey, where he's been moved around, sent down, and ridden the bench a bunch, but this season he's been given a long opportunity, and he's done nothing with it. The flash he showed last September is the last ember of hope that it's possible to figure it out, but the more he plays, the more that month looks like an outlier.

There are better ways to use a 40-man spot than on Heston Kjerstad

Kjerstad is still on the 40-man roster, so he counts for this exercise. Kjerstad has battled some unique health challenges, so it's very possible that his lack of success is just a result of something he has no ability to control. At this point, though, at 27 years old with no extended track record of success at the big league level, it's hard to see a leap coming for Kjerstad.

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