Proposed Jackson Holliday extension would be awful mistake by Orioles front office

The Baltimore Orioles took Jackson Holliday first overall in the 2022 MLB Draft in the hope that he would be a lineup cornerstone for years. For a while, it looked like he was well on his way to being exactly that as Holliday rocketed through the minor leagues and, after a strong spring, ultimately made his big league debut at just 20 years old. Sadly, that is where the trouble started.

After struggling so badly after being promoted to the big leagues that he was demoted just a couple of weeks later, there were understandable concerns with the Orioles' player development and decisions when it came to Holliday. It didn't take too long for Holliday to make it back to the majors, but he has been inconsistent at best at the plate while being a net-negative on defense.

Still, that didn't prevent Bleacher Report from proposing that the Orioles give Holliday $150 million in an extension, and we....have questions.

Jackson Holliday has not come close to earning a big-money contract extension from the Orioles...yet

While there was a time when Orioles fans would have been thrilled for Baltimore to put an eight-year, $150 million extension on the table for Holliday, times have changed. After posting a .659 OPS through his first 857 plate appearances in the big leagues while delivering -9 Outs Above Average on defense last season, what exactly is the argument for giving him that kind of extension?

Sure, he is still very young, and the Orioles shouldn't completely give up on the kid. After all, he is very talented, and the organization did invest a first overall pick in him. However, those are not reasons to give him a nine-figure, long-term extension until there is reason to believe that he would, you know, earn it.

There is a bit of a double-bind with Holliday, however. He hasn't played all that well, so giving him a big extension doesn't make much sense. However, if Holliday plays well, the odds that such an extension would even get considered by Holliday's camp are near zero, especially with Scott Boras around pulling the strings behind the scenes. Unfortunately, the risk is too great for the Orioles to take that chance on Holliday right now.