Predicting who stays and who goes upon Gunnar Henderson's return to Orioles' lineup

After missing the first seven games of the 2025 season, Gunnar Henderson appears ready to rejoin the team when they open a three-game series in Kansas City on Friday night. While this is great news for the Orioles and their fans, it is not great news for the Orioles player whom Henderson will replace on the 26-man roster. Which Oriole will unfortunately draw the short straw upon Henderson's return?

At this time, there appear to be two main options: infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo and outfielder Dylan Carlson.

By now, the story of Jorge Mateo appears to have been written. He is a slick fielding, speedy utility man who has shown flashes at the plate but has struggled overall. Mateo has been with the Orioles since 2021 and held down the starting shortstop role before Henderson took over full time in 2024. He has struggled in an admittedly-small sample size this season, going hitless in nine at-bats as he returns from a season-ending injury in 2024.

While Mateo has played some outfield, he has mainly played shortstop and second base with the Orioles. Mateo is out of options, meaning the Orioles would have to designate him for assignment and expose him to all 29 other teams before he would be able to report to AAA.

Carlson's story is a bit different. The former top prospect and budding star in St. Louis started the season with AAA Norfolk, despite putting together a strong spring with the club. However, it did not take long for him to return to the big leagues, as the Orioles recalled Carlson on Monday when they placed Colton Cowser on the IL with a fractured thumb. Carlson, who is starting Thursday's matinee against the Red Sox, came into the game 0-1 with a walk and a run scored on the year.

The Orioles are likely choosing between Jorge Mateo and Dylan Carlson as the roster casualty for Gunnar Henderson

The prognosis on Cowser is not great: he is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with the thumb fracture. That is why the Orioles recalled Carlson, who presumably will back up all three outfield positions while Heston Kjerstad and Ramon Laureano platoon in left field. However, it is unclear how badly the Orioles need Carlson with four outfielders - Cedric Mullins, Tyler O'Neill, Kjerstad and Laureano - already on the roster, and with Ryan O'Hearn able to play outfield if absolutely necessary. Unlike Mateo, Carlson does have options.

While Carlson and Mateo are the likeliest of options, the Orioles could also option Kjerstad, though manager Brandon Hyde has indicated that he expects to give Kjerstad regular at bats this year. That opportunity has grown even larger with Cowser's injury. The Orioles could also option a pitcher, such as Matt Bowman; however, the Orioles are highly unlikely to be a man down in the bullpen, especially with how their starting pitching has struggled this year.

Ultimately, the Orioles will likely make the "safe" choice and option Carlson to make room for Henderson. Carlson can come back if another injury strikes the outfield or if Kjerstad struggles in his more regular at bats. Mateo, on the other hand, has the advantage with his seniority on the team, his ability to play infield and outfield, and his speed as a pinch-running option.

It feels safe to say if Cowser had not broken his thumb in Toronto, Mateo would likely have been designated for assignment. But Cowser's injury and Carlson's rise to Baltimore likely saved Mateo's Orioles' career, at least for now. Indeed, Mateo will get more time, but if he fails to start producing, his days in Baltimore could - and should - be numbered.