Predicting the Orioles' 2025 starting rotation after the Grayson Rodriguez injury

With the loss of Corbin Burnes and the additions of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, the Orioles' 2025 rotation will already look a lot different than it did last season. Plus, they have already lost their Opening Day starter, as Grayson Rodriguez is starting the season on the IL.

So who will be their five (or six) primary arms to start the season? Below is a consolidated list of their projected starting rotation along with their 2024 stats and their 2025 ZiPS projected stats.

1. Zach Eflin

Eflin, who was acquired via trade from the Rays in 2024, most likely moves into the number 1 spot with the recent Grayson Rodriguez injury.

Of their six potential options, his 2024 ERA (3.59) and WHIP (1.15) were the lowest. These numbers also put him among the top 30 pitchers in baseball in 2024, so he is a great replacement in the ace spot.

2. Dean Kremer

Kremer nicely slots in at number 2, as his 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP were the second best in this list.

The 2025 ZiPS projections also shows an improvement to his ERA, suggesting his 2024 numbers may have not entirely reflected his potential on the mound.

3. Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton, who is the second oldest player in MLB behind only Justin Verlander, slots in at three. He was acquired this offseason in free agency after the O's failed to bring back Burnes or land the other big arms in Sasaki, Snell, or Fried.

The good news about Morton is that he is durable. He started 30 games last season, more than any of the Orioles' starters. The bad news is that he is aging and his 2025 projections reflect that, as his ERA is predicted to drop to 4.39. But, perhaps he continues to defy age and produce good results.

4. Tomoyuki Sugano

The O's signed Japanese right-hander Sugano for 1 year, $13 million this offseason. Across his 12 years in Japan, he has pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Last season, he was even better than his career average, posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Given Sugano is 35 years old and has pitched in Japan for most of his career, the O's certainly took a gamble. His ZiPS projections are not great, but time will tell if he can pitch at a high level in MLB like he did in Japan.

5. Cade Povich

Cade Povich, who spent a lot of time last season traveling between Triple-A and MLB, will most likely be given another chance this year.

He struggled last season with a 5.20 ERA but he is projected to greatly improve given some of his other stats. For example, in his final 5 starts of 2024, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. He has shown promising flashes and hopes to bounce back in 2025.

6. Albert Suarez

The final option for this rotation is 35 year-old Albert Suarez, who had a phenomenal 2024 but will most likely be in the bullpen for 2025. He is a great backup to have in case there are other injuries, or in case Sugano, Povich, or others fail to provide good innings.

But, similar to Morton, it is important to note that he is on the tail end of his career, and his projected 2025 stats show a decline from 2024.

Overall, the Orioles' rotation seems to be in decent shape but definitely has some big question marks. Based on projected WAR, FanGraphs slots the Orioles' rotation in at 23rd in MLB. And this makes sense: Rodriguez is injured and may be out for a longer period of time, Morton is one of the oldest arms in baseball, Sugano has yet to throw a pitch in the MLB, and Povich has not proved himself either.

It seems like the type of rotation that could pleasantly surprise us or, alternatively, terrorize us. I guess that kind of summarizes what being an Orioles fan in 2025 feels like, too.