Yankees vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Saturday, July 29 (How to bet total)

The Baltimore Orioles won on a walk-off home run by Anthony Santander on Friday night, beating the New York Yankees 1-0. 

New York’s offense was stagnant once again, even with the return of superstar Aaron Judge from the injured list. 

The Yankees wasted yet another great start from Gerrit Cole, and now they’re in trouble of falling further behind the O’s in the AL East on Saturday. 

Baltimore’s young core has quickly turned the team into one of the best squads in the American League, and they’ll look to keep that going with Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.65 ERA) on the mound on Saturday. Wells has worked out of the bullpen and started for the O’s this season. 

He will be opposed by Clarke Schmidt (6-6, 4.33 ERA) who has really pitched well since the start of May for New York. In 15 games (14 starts) since then, he has a 3.50 ERA and a 6-3 record. 

Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Yankees vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Orioles prediction and pick

It’s no secret that the Yankees’ offense has been stuck in mud all season, ranking in the bottom third of the league in OPS. 

Baltimore was smart with Judge on Friday night, walking him multiple times – daring the rest of the lineup to step up. If the Yankees struggled against Grayson Rodriguez, who came into the game with a much worse ERA than Wells had, then they’re going to be in trouble on Saturday. 

The O’s and Yankees both rank in the top six in the league in bullpen ERA, but Baltimore’s offense has been far better in 2023. 

Still, I prefer fading both offenses in this spot. 

Schmidt has been arguably the Yankees’ second-best starter since May, and he’s gotten a little luckier on batted balls in play (opponents hitting .285 since May). On the season, he has a BABIP of .312. 

Even if Baltimore does have a solid offensive game, it’s hard to trust the Yankees to hold up their end of the bargain to get this game into double digits. 

I’ll roll with the UNDER on Saturday evening. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.