Rays vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 10 (Baltimore takes series)
By Reed Wallach
The two best teams in the AL East settle a three game series on Wednesday night in Baltimore.
The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up a three game set after splitting the first two games over the past two days. Baltimore will hope to get a quality start out of Dean Kremer while the Rays counter with southpaw Jalen Beeks, who will operate as an opener.
How should we bet this closely lined matchup of two contenders for the division crown? First, let's check out the odds:
Rays vs. Orioles odds, run line and total
Rays vs. Orioles prediction and pick
I'm going to count on the Orioles to get to the Rays bullpen and Kremer to keep a lid on the Rays offense.
It won't be an easy task of course, no team is as proficient at the plate as the Rays while the team is thid in bullpen ERA, but I believe they are being overvalued as road favorites.
The Orioles can keep close to the Rays offense, Baltimore checks in seventh in wRC+ (quality of run scoring chances) while Tampa Bay is far and away first. However, the team is going to lean on its bullpen which can open up more variance to the game. Baltimore has been just as good as the Rays in terms of relievers, the team is fourth in bullpen ERA, decimal points behind the Rays.
Again, the Rays have the most explosive offense in baseball this season, but Baltimore is also in that elite category, posting a slugging percentage north of .400 and a walk rate of greater than 10%. In a one night sample,
I think Baltimore is undervalued as underdogs against a Rays lineup that may be leaning too much on the bullpen.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.