Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 5

The New York Yankees are not the same team without Aaron Judge, but New York has taken the first two from the Orioles in this early July series. The Yankees won 8-4 yesterday at Yankee Stadium to improve to 48-38 which is good for third in the AL East, only two games behind the 49-35 Baltimore Orioles, and eight back of the Rays. 

The Orioles will try to get one back with Dean Kremer on the mound, who is 8-4 with a 5.04 ERA this season. He will be opposed by rookie Randy Vasquez. Vasquez is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his two previous starts, can he keep it up against an elite O's offense?

Here are the odds for Wednesday's matchup:

Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick

The Yankees were one of the worst hitting teams in baseball once Judge first went down with his injury, but they’ve improved quite a bit since then. In the past two weeks they are 13th in runs scored with 61 and have an OPS of .741 as a team which ranks 12th over that stretch. Meanwhile the Orioles have gone quiet at the plate despite being at full health.

Baltimore has only scored 40 runs over that same stretch of games and only the Red Sox have scored less in the entire league. The O’s have an OPS of .629 during that stretch. Over the past week their struggles have started right at the top. Cedric Mullins has just two hits in his last 23 at-bats and has only scored one run over that stretch. Adley Rutschman is doing his best to carry the offense, but it can’t continue to be a one-man show.

The pitching on both sides in this one will jumpstart the offense. Dean Kremer has a deceiving record because of the insane amount of run support he’s been provided. His 5.04 ERA is much more indicative of the quality of his season so far and he allowed seven runs over three innings last time out. Vasquez on the other side is due for that kind of disastrous start because of his 4.84 FIP. 

I’ll take the over even with Baltimore struggling to score. Vasquez has had some early success, but he’ll need to do more to gain my trust. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change