Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Thursday, May 25 (Bet the OVER)

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees blew a lead on Wednesday night against the Baltimore Orioles, and now the team will send arguably their worst starter, Clarke Schmidt to the mound on Thursday. 

Schmidt is 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA this season, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (4.39) is significantly lower than his earned run average. 

He takes on Baltimore’s offseason acquisition Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA) who tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Let's break down the odds and a best bet for this game: 

Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick

Baltimore’s comeback on Wednesday night sets up a rubber match in this game, but I think there’s more value on the total than taking a side. 

The OVER is currently offered at even money, and both of these offenses have been solid, scoring 11 and 15 combined runs in the first two games. 

Over the last 15 days, New York ranks fifth in MLB in OPS while the Orioles aren’t far behind in 10th. 

Schmidt has struggled all season long, allowing at least three runs in seven of his 10 starts. He’s looked better in May, but the O’s tagged him for four runs in 3.1 innings earlier this season. 

Gibson is coming off arguably his best start of the season, but he too has turned in some blowup outings, allowing four or more runs on four different occasions this season, including twice this month. 

I expect the bats to stay hot for both sides on Thursday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.