The Orioles try to get a split in the Bronx on Thursday after losing the first two games of four this series before winning on Wednesday night.
Baltimore will count on Kyle Bradish to get the job done on Thursday in hopes of outperforming Yankees' starter Luis Severino. The Baltimore offense has been elite all season long while Severino has struggled to find his ceiling. Can Bradish limit the damage and lead the O's to a win?
Here are the odds and our best bet:
Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick
The Yankees offense is incredibly mediocre without Aaron Judge, but it's been trending upwards after hitting about .215 without him for 20 games. Over the last two weeks, the Yankees are right at the league average mark, 16th in OPS.
The team will face Bradish, who is pitching above expectation this season as he has a 3.58 ERA that is supported by a 4.49 xERA. The right hander has gotten by by stranding 76% of batters on base this season, but I'm not that confident in him holding up at the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.
However, the Orioles should answer the bell against Severino, who has a 6.30 ERA that is actually better than expectation. Severino has a 6.94 xERA as he has lost his control, walking more than four batters per nine innings and is getting crushed by hard contact, allowing a ghastly 18% home run to fly ball rate.
Both pitchers give me pause, and the Orioles above average slugging percentage makes me confident that Baltimore's offense can help push this over the total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.