Orioles vs. Royals prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 2 (O’s take advantage of KC’s home struggles)

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells (68) throws.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells (68) throws. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles have gotten off to a fast start in the 2023 season, showing that the team may no longer be rebuilding and may be ready to start contending for a playoff spot. 

Baltimore is in second place in the AL East, and the team has won eight of its last 10 games heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Kansas City Royals. 

Kansas City is just 7-22, the second worst mark in all of baseball, and the team has won just one of its 13 games at home this season. 

The Royals have veteran Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 6.35 ERA) on the mound on Tuesday against Baltimore’s Tyler Wells (1-1, 2.79 ERA). 

Let’s break down the odds and a best bet for this American League matchup: 

Orioles vs. Royals odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Royals prediction and pick

This is a pretty simple pick for me, as the O’s not only have the pitching advantage, but they are the far better team this season. 

Kansas City ranks dead last in Major League Baseball in OPS this season while the Orioles clock in at No. 9 in that statistic. 

Plus, Yarbrough has been rocked over his last three outings, allowing seven runs in just 10.1 innings of work. This is his second appearance of the season as a opener, and he allowed one run across four innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks his last time out. 

Wells has been solid for the O’s, leading the team to a 4-1 record in his five starts and giving up more than three runs just once. 

His Fielding Independent Pitching (3.91) is a little higher than his ERA, but he ranks in the 77th percentile in expected ERA this season. 

The issue for KC may not be Yarbrough, but since he’s only going to pitch a few innings, the team will have to turn things over to its bullpen which ranks 27th in baseball with a 5.26 ERA. 

With the Royals winning just one of 13 games at home this season, I’ll gladly back the Orioles to grab a road win on Tuesday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.