Orioles vs. Rays prediction and odds for Wednesday, June 21 (Wells Continues to Excell)

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells (68)
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells (68) / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The best division in baseball gave us a mini-showdown of its two best teams this week and for the finale of this two-gamer the first-place Tampa Bay Rays will hand the ball to Taj Bradley at home. The second-place Baltimore Orioles will counter with Tyler Wells for this afternoon start at Tropicana Field. 

Bradley comes into this one at 4-3 through nine starts with a 4.19 ERA in his rookie season. The 6-foot-8 Wells is 6-2 in his 13 starts with a 3.20 ERA 

Orioles vs. Rays odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Rays prediction and pick

At the start of the year the Orioles had Wells come out of the bullpen for his first appearance, but once he got into the rotation he hasn’t looked back. Baltimore really stumbled into a quality starting pitcher who will give them a chance against Tampa Bay today.

His expected ERA is 3.47, his strikeout rate of 26.1% is 69th percentile and his walk rate is 90th percentile. The big issue is that he has allowed far too many home runs. 

Wells has given up six home runs in 14 outings this season including two in his last start against Toronto. That would typically be disastrous against the Rays, a team that has hit the second most home runs in baseball this year, but in June they have completely fallen off.

This month they are 23rd in home runs coming into this series with Baltimore which is tied with the Pirates. Those 14 home runs have dropped them way off the pace they set in April when they hit 59. I’m less worried about Tampa’s power right now and I think Wells has a strong start. 

The problem for the Orioles is that Taj Bradley might be even better than Wells. Bradley has a 95th percentile K%, a 3.35 xERA and a 2.68 FIP.

I’m tempted to grab Baltimore as an underdog with Wells on the mound, but the indicators are too good for Bradley to bet against him even if the Rays are only 5-4 in his starts so far. I’ll take the under instead. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change